PitchMath
UEFA Champions League · 2023

Real Madrid 1–1 RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid and RB Leipzig drew 1–1.

Shots
1120
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.771.07
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid and RB Leipzig drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – RB Leipzig): shots 11–20, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.77–1.07, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

18.8 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · RB Leipzig15.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRB LeipzigBaseline
Shots18.8 shots/match15.5 shots/match12.6 shots/match
Shots against12.5 shots/match14.1 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

RB Leipzig's recent record differs from the season

weak

RB Leipzig's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.75 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.75 goals/match1.42 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · RB Leipzig6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRB LeipzigBaseline
Corners7 corners/match6 corners/match5.08 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots20 shotsReal Madrid 11 shots, RB Leipzig 20 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsReal Madrid 3 shots, RB Leipzig 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.77 xG1.07 xGReal Madrid 0.77 xG, RB Leipzig 1.07 xG
  • Possession54%46%Real Madrid 54%, RB Leipzig 46%
  • Corners3 corners8 cornersReal Madrid 3 corners, RB Leipzig 8 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls15 foulsReal Madrid 12 fouls, RB Leipzig 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig · 15′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedEduardo Camavinga · Real Madrid · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 51′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 39′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 41′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDani Carvajal · Real Madrid · 52′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 63′ · 0.03 xG · on targetWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 26′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBenjamin Šeško · RB Leipzig · 74′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBenjamin Henrichs · RB Leipzig · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRodrygo · Real Madrid · 89′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 16′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 82′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 42′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 13′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedLoïs Openda · RB Leipzig · 74′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedDani Olmo · RB Leipzig · 49′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWilli Orbán · RB Leipzig · 68′ · 0.13 xG · goalJude Bellingham · Real Madrid · 60′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedJoselu · Real Madrid · 87′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedXavi Simons · RB Leipzig · 67′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedVinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 65′ · 0.26 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Madrid: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.77 xG. RB Leipzig: 20 shots, 4 on target, 1.08 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Vinícius Júnior · Real Madrid · 65′Willi Orbán · RB Leipzig · 68′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Madrid 0.77 xG · RB Leipzig 1.08 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Real Madrid
0Draws
1RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League0–1
RB Leipzig — Real Madrid · UEFA Champions League3–2
Real Madrid — RB Leipzig · UEFA Champions League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · RB Leipzig in 2

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid8 matchesRB Leipzig8 matches
2.25 goals/match ▲Goals scored8/81.75 goals/match
1 goal/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.5 goals/match
2.17 xG/match ▲Expected goals8/81.56 xG/match
18.8 shots/match ▲Shots8/815.5 shots/match
6.13 shots/match ▲Shots on target8/85.25 shots/match
57% ●Possession8/846.5%
7 corners/match ●Corners8/86 corners/match
9.63 fouls/matchFouls8/811 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Thu, 7 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in UEFA Champions League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridRB Leipzig
CompetitionUEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League 2023/24
Head-to-headReal Madrid — RB Leipzig
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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