PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBarcelonaLas Palmas
Shots14 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match▲0 shots/match
Expected goals1.75 xG/match▲0.29 xG/match
Possession69%●31%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alex Suárez · Las Palmas · 3′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedKirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas · 2′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPau Cubarsí · Barcelona · 17′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 57′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 29′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFermín López · Barcelona · 42′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedSaúl Coco · Las Palmas · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 80′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJoão Cancelo · Barcelona · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedKirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJavier Muñoz · Las Palmas · 50′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMunir El Haddadi · Las Palmas · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Loiodice · Las Palmas · 41′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 87′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 16′ · 0.06 xG · on targetFermín López · Barcelona · 51′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 35′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedRobert Lewandowski · Barcelona · 35′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 45′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedRaphinha · Barcelona · 59′ · 0.30 xG · goalJoão Félix · Barcelona · 78′ · 0.64 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Barcelona: 14 shots, 2 on target, 1.79 xG. Las Palmas: 8 shots, 0 on target, 0.28 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Raphinha · Barcelona · 59′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 1.79 xG · Las Palmas 0.28 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Las Palmas's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Las Palmas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Las Palmas's recent record differs from the season

weak

Las Palmas's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Las Palmas show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Las Palmas's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.7 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Las Palmas10.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBarcelonaLas PalmasBaseline
Shots15.7 shots/match10.6 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match12 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Barcelona
0Draws
0Las Palmas
Las Palmas — Barcelona · La Liga1–2

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 0 · 3 too close

2.03 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 30/300.97 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/301.1 goals/match
2.17 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/300.87 xG/match
1.01 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 30/301.46 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3010.6 shots/match
10.6 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 30/3012 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.27 shots/match
3.57 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 30/304.1 shots/match
64.9%●Possessionseason · 30/3060.1%
6.07 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.4 corners/match
3.83 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 30/305.7 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3010.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
43%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/3023%
93%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 30/3060%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5
Las Palmas92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona90.8
Las Palmas15.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona82.5
Las Palmas65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona42.5
Las Palmas2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona7.5
Las Palmas12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona92.5
Las Palmas30
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona71.2
Las Palmas15.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona30 matchesLas Palmas30 matches
2.03 goals/match▲Goals scored30/300.97 goals/match
1.13 goals/matchGoals allowed30/301.1 goals/match
2.17 xG/match▲Expected goals30/300.87 xG/match
15.7 shots/match▲Shots30/3010.6 shots/match
6 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.27 shots/match
64.9%●Possession30/3060.1%
6.07 corners/match●Corners30/304.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls30/3010.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona16 matchesLas Palmas15 matches
2.13 goals/match▲Goals scored16/150.8 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/151.33 goals/match
2.34 xG/match▲Expected goals16/150.77 xG/match
17.9 shots/match▲Shots16/1510.6 shots/match
6.63 shots/match▲Shots on target16/152.93 shots/match
65.1%●Possession16/1557.5%
6.88 corners/match●Corners16/153.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1510.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 31 Mar 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBarcelonaLas Palmas
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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