PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–3Full-time recap

Osasuna

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricAlmeríaOsasuna
Shots12 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals0.84 xG/match1.03 xG/match▲
Possession51%●49%
Corners6 corners/match●1 corners/match
Fouls13 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Marcos Peña · Almería · 90′ · 0.01 xG · on targetJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 40′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlejandro Catena · Osasuna · 74′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMarko Milovanović · Almería · 8′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLargie Ramazani · Almería · 60′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 88′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLargie Ramazani · Almería · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 65′ · 0.04 xG · on targetLéo Baptistão · Almería · 82′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJosé Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 2′ · 0.09 xG · goalEdgar González · Almería · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMarcos Peña · Almería · 89′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIker Muñoz · Osasuna · 62′ · 0.14 xG · goalLargie Ramazani · Almería · 53′ · 0.37 xG · on targetAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 9′ · 0.74 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Almería: 12 shots, 5 on target, 0.85 xG. Osasuna: 6 shots, 4 on target, 1.06 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′José Manuel Arnáiz · Osasuna · 2′Ante Budimir · Osasuna · 9′Iker Muñoz · Osasuna · 62′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Almería 0.85 xG · Osasuna 1.06 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Almería's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Almería's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Almería's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots8.2 shots/match12 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible home split

moderate

Almería's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14.5 shots/match12 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Almería
0Draws
3Osasuna
Osasuna — Almería · La Liga1–0
Osasuna — Almería · La Liga3–1
Almería — Osasuna · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Almería favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Osasuna in 8 · 2 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 30/30▲1.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.43 goals/match
1.25 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 30/301.09 xG/match
1.67 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 30/30▲1.35 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 30/3011.1 shots/match
15.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 30/30▲11.5 shots/match
4.03 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 30/303.43 shots/match
5.17 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 30/30▲4.03 shots/match
45.8%Possessionseason · 30/30●47.5%
4.6 corners/match●Cornersseason · 30/304.4 corners/match
5.87 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 30/30▲4.7 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 30/3014.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
17%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 30/30▲33%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 30/30▲77%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Almería32.5
Osasuna42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Almería37.5
Osasuna30.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Almería7.5
Osasuna56.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Almería77.5
Osasuna27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Almería62.5
Osasuna72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Almería47.5
Osasuna27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Almería50
Osasuna35
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Almería30 matchesOsasuna30 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored30/30▲1.2 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲1.43 goals/match
1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals30/301.09 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots30/3011.1 shots/match
4.03 shots/match▲Shots on target30/303.43 shots/match
45.8%Possession30/30●47.5%
4.6 corners/match●Corners30/304.4 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.2 fouls/matchFouls30/3014.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Almería15 matchesOsasuna15 matches
0.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/15▲1.27 goals/match
1.87 goals/matchGoals allowed15/15▲1.47 goals/match
1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals15/150.97 xG/match
14.5 shots/match▲Shots15/159.2 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target15/153.2 shots/match
50.7%●Possession15/1545.3%
4.67 corners/match●Corners15/153.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
13.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1513.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Mar 2024, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsAlmeríaOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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