PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Fri, 12 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricReal BetisCelta Vigo
Shots15 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match5 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.26 xG/match1.6 xG/match▲
Possession47%53%●
Corners6 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Pablo Fornals · Real Betis · 48′ · 0.01 xG · on targetGermán Pezzella · Real Betis · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarles Pérez · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPablo Fornals · Real Betis · 32′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJonathan Bamba · Celta Vigo · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAitor Ruibal · Real Betis · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGermán Pezzella · Real Betis · 82′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNabil Fekir · Real Betis · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFranco Cervi · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIsco · Real Betis · 6′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedWillian José · Real Betis · 27′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIago Aspas · Celta Vigo · 60′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNabil Fekir · Real Betis · 83′ · 0.04 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 24′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 14′ · 0.07 xG · on targetHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 15′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedHugo Álvarez · Celta Vigo · 43′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedNabil Fekir · Real Betis · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedGuido Rodríguez · Real Betis · 50′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 88′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCédric Bakambu · Real Betis · 81′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPablo Fornals · Real Betis · 90′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedJuan Miranda · Real Betis · 53′ · 0.25 xG · goalTadeo Allende · Celta Vigo · 87′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedPablo Fornals · Real Betis · 90′ · 0.28 xG · off target or blockedTadeo Allende · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.39 xG · on targetJørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 90′ · 0.75 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Real Betis: 15 shots, 3 on target, 1.29 xG. Celta Vigo: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.91 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Juan Miranda · Real Betis · 53′Nabil Fekir · Real Betis · 83′Jørgen Strand Larsen · Celta Vigo · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Real Betis 1.29 xG · Celta Vigo 1.91 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Betis's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.06 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.06 goals/match1.21 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Betis have a visible home split

moderate

Real Betis's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.3 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.3 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Real Betis
1Draws
4Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Real Betis · La Liga2–1
Real Betis — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–4
Celta Vigo — Real Betis · La Liga1–0
Celta Vigo — Real Betis · La Liga0–0
Real Betis — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Real Betis favored in 7 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 1 · 5 too close

1.23 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 31/311.06 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 31/311.48 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 31/31▲1.25 xG/match
1.37 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 31/311.47 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 31/3112.6 shots/match
12 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 31/3112.6 shots/match
3.84 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 31/314 shots/match
4.13 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 31/314.45 shots/match
50.5%●Possessionseason · 31/3145.4%
5.81 corners/match●Cornersseason · 31/315 corners/match
5.03 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 31/315.1 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 31/3112.2 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 31/3119%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 31/3165%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Real Betis62.5
Celta Vigo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Real Betis57.5
Celta Vigo49.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Real Betis54.2
Celta Vigo29.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Real Betis67.5
Celta Vigo92.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Real Betis22.5
Celta Vigo32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Real Betis87.5
Celta Vigo62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Real Betis57.5
Celta Vigo51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Real Betis31 matchesCelta Vigo31 matches
1.23 goals/match▲Goals scored31/311.06 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed31/311.48 goals/match
1.15 xG/matchExpected goals31/31▲1.25 xG/match
13.1 shots/matchShots31/3112.6 shots/match
3.84 shots/matchShots on target31/314 shots/match
50.5%●Possession31/3145.4%
5.81 corners/match●Corners31/315 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls31/3112.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Real Betis16 matchesCelta Vigo16 matches
1.44 goals/matchGoals scored16/161.44 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.81 goals/match
1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals16/161.12 xG/match
15.3 shots/match▲Shots16/1610.8 shots/match
4.25 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164 shots/match
51.8%●Possession16/1641.4%
6.25 corners/match●Corners16/163.69 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.3 fouls/matchFouls16/1612.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

12.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/112.3 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 12 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsReal BetisCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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