La Liga · 2023Mon, 29 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Barcelona

WWWWL

4–2Full-time recap

Valencia

LDWWL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia
Shots	27 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	13 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.21 xG/match▲	2.13 xG/match
Possession	80%●	20%
Corners	15 corners/match●	1 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Barcelona: 27 shots, 13 on target, 2.24 xG. Valencia: 5 shots, 3 on target, 2.14 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Barcelona 2.24 xG · Valencia 2.14 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Valencia's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.45 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	7.4 shots/match	9.45 shots/match	12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

64.9%●PossessionBarcelona · Valencia43.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.3 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia	Baseline
Possession	64.9%	43.6%	49.7%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Valencia show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Valencia's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

15.9 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Valencia9.45 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia	Baseline
Shots	15.9 shots/match	9.45 shots/match	12.2 shots/match
Shots against	10.7 shots/match	10.6 shots/match	12.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Barcelona

1Draws

0Valencia

16 Dec 2023Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga1–1

5 Mar 2023Barcelona — Valencia · La Liga1–0

29 Oct 2022Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga0–1

20 Feb 2022Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga1–4

17 Oct 2021Barcelona — Valencia · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Valencia in 0 · 4 too close

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 33/331.12 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 33/331.15 goals/match

2.11 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 33/331.06 xG/match

1.08 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 33/331.25 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 33/339.45 shots/match

10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 33/3310.6 shots/match

6.09 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 33/333.55 shots/match

3.67 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 33/334.33 shots/match

64.9%●Possessionseason · 33/3343.6%

6.33 corners/match●Cornersseason · 33/333.12 corners/match

3.82 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 33/334.94 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 33/3312.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

42%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 33/3336%

94%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 33/3370%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona92.5

Valencia22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona75

Valencia67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona42.5

Valencia12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona12.5

Valencia42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona97.5

Valencia2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona75

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona33 matchesValencia33 matches

2.06 goals/match▲Goals scored33/331.12 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed33/331.15 goals/match

2.11 xG/match▲Expected goals33/331.06 xG/match

15.9 shots/match▲Shots33/339.45 shots/match

6.09 shots/match▲Shots on target33/333.55 shots/match

64.9%●Possession33/3343.6%

6.33 corners/match●Corners33/333.12 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11 fouls/matchFouls33/3312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona17 matchesValencia17 matches

2.24 goals/match▲Goals scored17/171.06 goals/match

1.24 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.65 goals/match

2.33 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.91 xG/match

18.4 shots/match▲Shots17/178.35 shots/match

7 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173.29 shots/match

65.9%●Possession17/1740.3%

7.35 corners/match●Corners17/172.41 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1712.2 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/19.1 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples33 / 33home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 29 Apr 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4