PitchMath
La Liga · 2023Sun, 5 May 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricRayo VallecanoAlmería
Shots27 shots/match▲7 shots/match
Shots on target10 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.42 xG/match▲0.37 xG/match
Possession68%●32%
Corners9 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls17 fouls/match15 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Abdul Mumin · Rayo Vallecano · 52′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 53′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 55′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 81′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedChumi · Almería · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 12′ · 0.02 xG · on targetIván Balliu · Rayo Vallecano · 19′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 55′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 58′ · 0.02 xG · on targetJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 77′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiguel Crespo · Rayo Vallecano · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 16′ · 0.03 xG · on targetÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 33′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Trejo · Rayo Vallecano · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMarc Pubill · Almería · 64′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 77′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAdrián Embarba · Almería · 78′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 48′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBebé · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 42′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLéo Baptistão · Almería · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 74′ · 0.05 xG · on targetRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 17′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPep Chavarría · Rayo Vallecano · 70′ · 0.07 xG · on targetRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 36′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRadamel Falcao · Rayo Vallecano · 20′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 87′ · 0.10 xG · on targetÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 14′ · 0.14 xG · on targetRaúl de Tomás · Rayo Vallecano · 81′ · 0.15 xG · on targetChoco Lozano · Almería · 30′ · 0.18 xG · goalÓscar Valentín · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Rayo Vallecano: 27 shots, 10 on target, 1.42 xG. Almería: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.37 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Choco Lozano · Almería · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Rayo Vallecano 1.42 xG · Almería 0.37 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Rayo Vallecano's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.79 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.4 goals/match0.79 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Almería have a visible away split

moderate

Almería's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.29 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.29 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Rayo Vallecano show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Rayo Vallecano's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.7 shots/match▲ShotsRayo Vallecano · Almería12.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricRayo VallecanoAlmeríaBaseline
Shots12.7 shots/match12.4 shots/match12.2 shots/match
Shots against11.7 shots/match15.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Rayo Vallecano
0Draws
1Almería
Almería — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga0–2
Rayo Vallecano — Almería · La Liga2–0
Almería — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Rayo Vallecano favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Almería in 3 · 4 too close

0.79 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 34/34▲0.97 goals/match
1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.97 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 34/34▲1.28 xG/match
1.19 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/341.65 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 34/3412.4 shots/match
11.7 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 34/3415.4 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 34/344.18 shots/match
4.09 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/345.21 shots/match
50%●Possessionseason · 34/3446.2%
4.32 corners/matchCornersseason · 34/34●4.56 corners/match
4.47 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/345.71 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
15.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3413.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
35%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/3418%
53%Scoring frequencyseason · 34/34▲68%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Rayo Vallecano57.5
Almería37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Rayo Vallecano50
Almería45
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Rayo Vallecano54.2
Almería5.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Rayo Vallecano62.5
Almería82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano77.5
Almería57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Rayo Vallecano27.5
Almería47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Rayo Vallecano61.2
Almería53.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Rayo Vallecano34 matchesAlmería34 matches
0.79 goals/matchGoals scored34/34▲0.97 goals/match
1.26 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.97 goals/match
1.1 xG/matchExpected goals34/34▲1.28 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots34/3412.4 shots/match
4.35 shots/matchShots on target34/344.18 shots/match
50%●Possession34/3446.2%
4.32 corners/matchCorners34/34●4.56 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
15.2 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Rayo Vallecano17 matchesAlmería17 matches
0.94 goals/matchGoals scored17/17▲1 goals/match
1.41 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/172 goals/match
1.22 xG/match▲Expected goals17/171.01 xG/match
14.9 shots/match▲Shots17/179.29 shots/match
5.18 shots/match▲Shots on target17/173 shots/match
53.2%●Possession17/1740.9%
5.59 corners/match●Corners17/174.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
16.2 fouls/matchFouls17/1713 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.2 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 5 May 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsRayo VallecanoAlmería
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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