La Liga · 2024Thu, 26 Sept 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

WLLWL

0–1Full-time recap

Atlético Madrid

WDWWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Atlético Madrid
Shots	10 shots/match▲	8 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.53 xG/match▲	0.62 xG/match
Possession	58%●	42%
Corners	2 corners/match	3 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	11 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 10 shots, 4 on target, 1.52 xG. Atlético Madrid: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.58 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 1.52 xG · Atlético Madrid 0.58 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Madrid. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Atlético Madrid have a visible away split

weak

Atlético Madrid's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9 shots/match	12.3 shots/match	10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Atlético Madrid.

4.2 days▲Rest daysCelta Vigo · Atlético Madrid4 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Celta Vigo	Atlético Madrid	Baseline
Rest days	4.2 days	4 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	2 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Atlético Madrid's recent record differs from the season

weak

Atlético Madrid's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Celta Vigo

0Draws

5Atlético Madrid

12 May 2024Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

21 Oct 2023Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–3

12 Feb 2023Celta Vigo — Atlético Madrid · La Liga0–1

10 Sept 2022Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga4–1

26 Feb 2022Atlético Madrid — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Atlético Madrid in 7 · 4 too close

2 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.57 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.43 goals/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 7/71.56 xG/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 7/7▲0.84 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/7▲12.3 shots/match

11.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲9.86 shots/match

5.57 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74.29 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/7▲2.57 shots/match

56.9%●Possessionseason · 7/749.4%

3.86 corners/matchCornersseason · 7/7●4.14 corners/match

4.57 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/7▲3.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/710.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/7▲71%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo72.5

Atlético Madrid57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo76.7

Atlético Madrid67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo30.8

Atlético Madrid91.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo27.5

Atlético Madrid62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo17.5

Atlético Madrid22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo17.5

Atlético Madrid32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo45

Atlético Madrid46.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo7 matchesAtlético Madrid7 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.57 goals/match

2 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲0.43 goals/match

1.61 xG/matchExpected goals7/71.56 xG/match

11.4 shots/matchShots7/7▲12.3 shots/match

5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74.29 shots/match

56.9%●Possession7/749.4%

3.86 corners/matchCorners7/7●4.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10 fouls/matchFouls7/710.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo4 matchesAtlético Madrid4 matches

2 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

1 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲0.75 goals/match

1.38 xG/match▲Expected goals4/41 xG/match

9.25 shots/matchShots4/49 shots/match

5.5 shots/match▲Shots on target4/43.25 shots/match

56.3%●Possession4/447.3%

3.5 corners/match●Corners4/43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.5 fouls/matchFouls4/411 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.2 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/14 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Thu, 26 Sept 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4