PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Mon, 21 Oct 2024, 19:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–3Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaLas Palmas
Shots14 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target7 shots/match▲6 shots/match
Expected goals1.65 xG/match▲1.14 xG/match
Possession47%53%●
Corners11 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Adnan Januzaj · Las Palmas · 38′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDário Essugo · Las Palmas · 26′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Muñoz · Las Palmas · 49′ · 0.02 xG · on targetCésar Tárrega · Valencia · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAdnan Januzaj · Las Palmas · 43′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAndré Almeida · Valencia · 90′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 57′ · 0.04 xG · on targetPepelu · Valencia · 17′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAdnan Januzaj · Las Palmas · 38′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 41′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDimitri Foulquier · Valencia · 89′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDimitri Foulquier · Valencia · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedThierry Correia · Valencia · 48′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMarc Cardona · Las Palmas · 77′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHugo Duro · Valencia · 11′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Abajas · Valencia · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedDani Gómez · Valencia · 17′ · 0.08 xG · on targetThierry Correia · Valencia · 25′ · 0.09 xG · on targetCésar Tárrega · Valencia · 90′ · 0.09 xG · goalKirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas · 56′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSergi Canós · Valencia · 1′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Muñoz · Las Palmas · 43′ · 0.22 xG · goalFábio Silva · Las Palmas · 53′ · 0.24 xG · goalAlberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 84′ · 0.42 xG · goalPepelu · Valencia · 14′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 14 shots, 7 on target, 1.70 xG. Las Palmas: 11 shots, 6 on target, 1.23 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Pepelu · Valencia · 14′César Tárrega · Valencia · 90′Álex Muñoz · Las Palmas · 43′Fábio Silva · Las Palmas · 53′Alberto Moleiro · Las Palmas · 84′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.70 xG · Las Palmas 1.23 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

12 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots12 shots/match9.5 shots/match11.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Las Palmas have recorded the higher season possession share.

45.1%PossessionValencia · Las Palmas●57.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricValenciaLas PalmasBaseline
Possession45.1%57.5%48%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Valencia
0Draws
1Las Palmas
Las Palmas — Valencia · La Liga2–0
Valencia — Las Palmas · La Liga1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Las Palmas in 5 · 3 too close

0.7 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 10/101.9 goals/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲1.04 xG/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 10/101.96 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/10▲12.1 shots/match
10.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 10/1014.5 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 10/10▲4.6 shots/match
3.8 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 10/105.1 shots/match
45.1%Possessionseason · 10/10●57.5%
6.2 corners/match●Cornersseason · 10/104.9 corners/match
4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 10/104.3 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 10/1012.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
30%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/100%
50%Scoring frequencyseason · 10/10▲80%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia32.5
Las Palmas77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia13.3
Las Palmas65.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia54.2
Las Palmas10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia22.5
Las Palmas17.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia27.5
Las Palmas42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia97.5
Las Palmas57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia38.8
Las Palmas60
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia10 matchesLas Palmas10 matches
0.7 goals/matchGoals scored10/10▲1.2 goals/match
1.6 goals/match▲Goals allowed10/101.9 goals/match
0.73 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.04 xG/match
9.5 shots/matchShots10/10▲12.1 shots/match
3 shots/matchShots on target10/10▲4.6 shots/match
45.1%Possession10/10●57.5%
6.2 corners/match●Corners10/104.9 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls10/1012.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia5 matchesLas Palmas5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.2 goals/match
1.2 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/52.2 goals/match
0.97 xG/match▲Expected goals5/50.88 xG/match
12 shots/match▲Shots5/510.2 shots/match
3.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲5.2 shots/match
45%Possession5/5●60.4%
8.6 corners/match●Corners5/54 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

17 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/116.1 days
0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Mon, 21 Oct 2024, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaLas Palmas
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

Make a graphic from this match

Creator Studio builds a branded post from this match's recorded data, with its evidence grade and source cutoff carried into the export.

Create a graphic from this match