La Liga · 2024Sun, 24 Nov 2024, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Athletic Club

LWDDD

1–0Full-time recap

Real Sociedad

DWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad
Shots	12 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	1 shots/match
Expected goals	1.34 xG/match▲	0.7 xG/match
Possession	40%	60%●
Corners	4 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	18 fouls/match	9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Athletic Club: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.35 xG. Real Sociedad: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.53 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 1.35 xG · Real Sociedad 0.53 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Athletic Club's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Real Sociedad's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five shots average is above their season average.

15.2 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season11.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	15.2 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Sociedad have a visible away split

moderate

Real Sociedad's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.29 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season11.2 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	9.29 shots/match	11.2 shots/match	11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Sociedad have recorded the higher season possession share.

48.5%PossessionAthletic Club · Real Sociedad●56.9%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Athletic Club	Real Sociedad	Baseline
Possession	48.5%	56.9%	49.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Athletic Club

0Draws

2Real Sociedad

13 Jan 2024Athletic Club — Real Sociedad · La Liga2–1

30 Sept 2023Real Sociedad — Athletic Club · La Liga3–0

15 Apr 2023Athletic Club — Real Sociedad · La Liga2–0

14 Jan 2023Real Sociedad — Athletic Club · La Liga3–1

20 Feb 2022Athletic Club — Real Sociedad · La Liga4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Athletic Club favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Real Sociedad in 2 · 5 too close

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 14/140.79 goals/match

0.93 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲0.79 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 14/141.27 xG/match

1.02 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 14/141.1 xG/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 14/1411.2 shots/match

9.14 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 14/1411.3 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/143.93 shots/match

3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/143.07 shots/match

48.5%Possessionseason · 14/14●56.9%

5 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●6.57 corners/match

4.64 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/144.86 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

13 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1412.6 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

29%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/14▲50%

86%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 14/1457%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Athletic Club47.5

Real Sociedad82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Athletic Club60

Real Sociedad38.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Athletic Club83.3

Real Sociedad73.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Athletic Club67.5

Real Sociedad12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club62.5

Real Sociedad57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Athletic Club67.5

Real Sociedad97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Athletic Club60

Real Sociedad64.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Athletic Club14 matchesReal Sociedad14 matches

1.43 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.79 goals/match

0.93 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲0.79 goals/match

1.48 xG/match▲Expected goals14/141.27 xG/match

11.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1411.2 shots/match

3.79 shots/matchShots on target14/143.93 shots/match

48.5%Possession14/14●56.9%

5 corners/matchCorners14/14●6.57 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Athletic Club8 matchesReal Sociedad7 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored8/70.57 goals/match

0.75 goals/matchGoals allowed8/7▲0.29 goals/match

1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals8/70.94 xG/match

11.3 shots/match▲Shots8/79.29 shots/match

4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target8/72.86 shots/match

48.8%Possession8/7●56.6%

4.25 corners/matchCorners8/7●5.14 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

13.3 fouls/matchFouls8/713.4 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

14.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 25 Nov 2024, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4