La Liga · 2024Sun, 26 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Barcelona

WDLLD

7–1Full-time recap

Valencia

DDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia
Shots	22 shots/match▲	7 shots/match
Shots on target	11 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	4.4 xG/match▲	1.43 xG/match
Possession	72%●	28%
Corners	14 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Barcelona show a distinct attacking-volume record

strong

Barcelona's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.3 shots/match▲ShotsBarcelona · Valencia9.14 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia	Baseline
Shots	17.3 shots/match	9.14 shots/match	11.4 shots/match
Shots against	8.71 shots/match	11 shots/match	11 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Valencia's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season0.95 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	0.95 goals/match	1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Barcelona have recorded the higher season possession share.

67.9%●PossessionBarcelona · Valencia46.7%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 21.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Barcelona	Valencia	Baseline
Possession	67.9%	46.7%	48.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

4Barcelona

1Draws

0Valencia

17 Aug 2024Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga1–2

29 Apr 2024Barcelona — Valencia · La Liga4–2

16 Dec 2023Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga1–1

5 Mar 2023Barcelona — Valencia · La Liga1–0

29 Oct 2022Valencia — Barcelona · La Liga0–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Barcelona favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Valencia in 0 · 3 too close

2.81 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 21/210.95 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 21/211.71 goals/match

2.6 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 21/211.02 xG/match

1.25 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 21/211.59 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 21/219.14 shots/match

8.71 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 21/2111 shots/match

6.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 21/212.95 shots/match

3.38 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 21/213.81 shots/match

67.9%●Possessionseason · 21/2146.7%

6.62 corners/match●Cornersseason · 21/215.29 corners/match

4.57 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 21/215.19 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

9.14 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 21/2111.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 21/2119%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 21/2167%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Barcelona97.5

Valencia37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Barcelona97.5

Valencia20

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Barcelona78.3

Valencia37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Barcelona67.5

Valencia17.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Barcelona2.5

Valencia30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Barcelona97.5

Valencia72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Barcelona73.8

Valencia33.1

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Barcelona21 matchesValencia21 matches

2.81 goals/match▲Goals scored21/210.95 goals/match

1.14 goals/match▲Goals allowed21/211.71 goals/match

2.6 xG/match▲Expected goals21/211.02 xG/match

17.3 shots/match▲Shots21/219.14 shots/match

6.71 shots/match▲Shots on target21/212.95 shots/match

67.9%●Possession21/2146.7%

6.62 corners/match●Corners21/215.29 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

9.14 fouls/matchFouls21/2111.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Barcelona9 matchesValencia11 matches

3 goals/match▲Goals scored9/110.55 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed9/112.09 goals/match

2.92 xG/match▲Expected goals9/110.85 xG/match

19.3 shots/match▲Shots9/117.64 shots/match

7.56 shots/match▲Shots on target9/112 shots/match

71.3%●Possession9/1146.4%

8.44 corners/match●Corners9/114.18 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

8.11 fouls/matchFouls9/1111.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples21 / 21home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Mon, 27 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4