PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricValenciaCelta Vigo
Shots8 shots/match▲3 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.74 xG/match▲0.46 xG/match
Possession46%54%●
Corners5 corners/match●2 corners/match
Fouls9 fouls/match17 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Diego López · Valencia · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedFran Pérez · Valencia · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 60′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJavier Guerra · Valencia · 68′ · 0.05 xG · goalBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 12′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJosé Luis Gayà · Valencia · 64′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedMouctar Diakhaby · Valencia · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetLuis Rioja · Valencia · 44′ · 0.25 xG · goalPablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 65′ · 0.30 xG · goalHugo Duro · Valencia · 42′ · 0.53 xG · off target or blockedDiego López · Valencia · 64′ · 0.57 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Valencia: 8 shots, 5 on target, 1.62 xG. Celta Vigo: 3 shots, 2 on target, 0.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Luis Rioja · Valencia · 44′Javier Guerra · Valencia · 68′Pablo Durán · Celta Vigo · 65′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Valencia 1.62 xG · Celta Vigo 0.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Valencia's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Valencia's recent record differs from the season

weak

Valencia's last-five shots average is below their season average.

7 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.09 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots7 shots/match9.09 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Valencia have a visible home split

moderate

Valencia's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season9.09 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.5 shots/match9.09 shots/match11 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Valencia
2Draws
1Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga3–1
Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga2–2
Valencia — Celta Vigo · La Liga0–0
Celta Vigo — Valencia · La Liga1–2
Valencia — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Valencia favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Celta Vigo in 8 · 5 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 22/22▲1.41 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.59 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 22/22▲1.33 xG/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 22/22▲1.14 xG/match
9.09 shots/matchShotsseason · 22/22▲11 shots/match
10.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 22/2210.7 shots/match
3.05 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 22/22▲4.23 shots/match
3.73 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 22/223.91 shots/match
46.6%Possessionseason · 22/22●53.4%
5.27 corners/match●Cornersseason · 22/223.36 corners/match
5.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 22/22▲4 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 22/2211.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 22/2218%
68%Scoring frequencyseason · 22/22▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Valencia37.5
Celta Vigo72.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Valencia20.8
Celta Vigo65
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Valencia44.2
Celta Vigo38.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Valencia17.5
Celta Vigo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Valencia27.5
Celta Vigo27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Valencia72.5
Celta Vigo7.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Valencia32.5
Celta Vigo39.4
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Valencia22 matchesCelta Vigo22 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored22/22▲1.41 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed22/22▲1.59 goals/match
1.05 xG/matchExpected goals22/22▲1.33 xG/match
9.09 shots/matchShots22/22▲11 shots/match
3.05 shots/matchShots on target22/22▲4.23 shots/match
46.6%Possession22/22●53.4%
5.27 corners/match●Corners22/223.36 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.6 fouls/matchFouls22/2211.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Valencia11 matchesCelta Vigo11 matches
1.45 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.18 goals/match
1.27 goals/match▲Goals allowed11/112.18 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals11/111.3 xG/match
10.5 shots/matchShots11/11▲11.7 shots/match
4.09 shots/match▲Shots on target11/113.64 shots/match
46.9%Possession11/11●55%
6.36 corners/match●Corners11/113.18 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1111.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/15.8 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples22 / 22home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 2 Feb 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsValenciaCelta Vigo
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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