PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricCelta VigoLeganés
Shots7 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target4 shots/match6 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.98 xG/match1.06 xG/match▲
Possession57%●43%
Corners2 corners/match5 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match9 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Diego García · Leganés · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMiguel de la Fuente · Leganés · 72′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedÓscar Rodríguez · Leganés · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDiego García · Leganés · 31′ · 0.04 xG · on targetBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 36′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedBorja Iglesias · Celta Vigo · 58′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiguel de la Fuente · Leganés · 73′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJulián Chicco · Leganés · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDiego García · Leganés · 49′ · 0.05 xG · on targetÓscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 26′ · 0.06 xG · goalValentin Rosier · Leganés · 56′ · 0.06 xG · on targetSergio Carreira · Celta Vigo · 51′ · 0.09 xG · on targetJavier Hernández · Leganés · 90′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedRenato Tapia · Leganés · 32′ · 0.14 xG · on targetDani Raba · Leganés · 90′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedValentin Rosier · Leganés · 19′ · 0.31 xG · goalAlfon González · Celta Vigo · 45′ · 0.57 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Celta Vigo: 7 shots, 4 on target, 0.88 xG. Leganés: 12 shots, 6 on target, 1.05 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Óscar Mingueza · Celta Vigo · 26′Alfon González · Celta Vigo · 45′Valentin Rosier · Leganés · 19′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 0.88 xG · Leganés 1.05 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

weak

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.48 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.48 goals/match1.17 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Celta Vigo show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Celta Vigo's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11 shots/match▲ShotsCelta Vigo · Leganés8.11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoLeganésBaseline
Shots11 shots/match8.11 shots/match10.9 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match14.9 shots/match11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Celta Vigo have recorded the higher season possession share.

53.7%●PossessionCelta Vigo · Leganés42.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricCelta VigoLeganésBaseline
Possession53.7%42.4%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Celta Vigo
0Draws
1Leganés
Leganés — Celta Vigo · La Liga3–0

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Leganés in 1 · 3 too close

1.48 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 27/270.89 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/271.48 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 27/270.8 xG/match
1.1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 27/271.54 xG/match
11 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 27/278.11 shots/match
11 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2714.9 shots/match
4.37 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 27/272.78 shots/match
3.96 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/274.67 shots/match
53.7%●Possessionseason · 27/2742.4%
3.48 corners/match●Cornersseason · 27/272.78 corners/match
4.07 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 27/276.15 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2713.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
19%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/27▲30%
89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 27/2759%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo77.5
Leganés12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo64.2
Leganés10.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo40.8
Leganés23.3
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo17.5
Leganés12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo32.5
Leganés67.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo12.5
Leganés2.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo41.2
Leganés21.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo27 matchesLeganés27 matches
1.48 goals/match▲Goals scored27/270.89 goals/match
1.52 goals/matchGoals allowed27/271.48 goals/match
1.41 xG/match▲Expected goals27/270.8 xG/match
11 shots/match▲Shots27/278.11 shots/match
4.37 shots/match▲Shots on target27/272.78 shots/match
53.7%●Possession27/2742.4%
3.48 corners/match●Corners27/272.78 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls27/2713.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo14 matchesLeganés14 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored14/140.79 goals/match
1 goals/match▲Goals allowed14/141.5 goals/match
1.45 xG/match▲Expected goals14/140.66 xG/match
10.4 shots/match▲Shots14/148.21 shots/match
4.86 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.14 shots/match
52%●Possession14/1440.6%
3.57 corners/match●Corners14/143.21 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1413 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples27 / 27home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsCelta VigoLeganés
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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Celta Vigo vs Leganés — stats, xG & match recap | PitchMath