La Liga · 2024Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Deportivo Alavés

LLDLD

1–0Full-time recap

Villarreal

DWWDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Villarreal
Shots	5 shots/match	24 shots/match▲
Shots on target	3 shots/match▲	2 shots/match
Expected goals	1.04 xG/match	2.85 xG/match▲
Possession	31%	69%●
Corners	1 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Deportivo Alavés: 4 shots, 2 on target, 0.23 xG. Villarreal: 24 shots, 2 on target, 2.78 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Deportivo Alavés 0.23 xG · Villarreal 2.78 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Deportivo Alavés's last-five shots average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Deportivo Alavés's recent record differs from the season

weak

Deportivo Alavés's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.4 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season10.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	13.4 shots/match	10.7 shots/match	10.9 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

10.7 shots/match▲ShotsDeportivo Alavés · Villarreal14.7 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Deportivo Alavés	Villarreal	Baseline
Shots	10.7 shots/match	14.7 shots/match	10.9 shots/match
Shots against	10.4 shots/match	11.9 shots/match	11.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Deportivo Alavés

2Draws

2Villarreal

9 Nov 2024Villarreal — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga3–0

10 Feb 2024Deportivo Alavés — Villarreal · La Liga1–1

22 Oct 2023Villarreal — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga1–1

30 Apr 2022Deportivo Alavés — Villarreal · La Liga2–1

21 Dec 2021Villarreal — Deportivo Alavés · La Liga5–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Deportivo Alavés favored in 3 of 13 directional metrics · Villarreal in 7 · 3 too close

1.11 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/26▲1.85 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/26▲1.38 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/26▲1.79 xG/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/26▲1.13 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/26▲14.7 shots/match

10.4 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 27/2611.9 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/26▲4.69 shots/match

3.74 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 27/264.19 shots/match

45.4%Possessionseason · 27/26●49.1%

4.52 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/26●4.81 corners/match

4.37 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/264.31 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

15.9 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/2611.5 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/2612%

67%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/26▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Deportivo Alavés22.5

Villarreal45

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Deportivo Alavés38.3

Villarreal86.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Deportivo Alavés56.7

Villarreal41.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Deportivo Alavés52.5

Villarreal97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés92.5

Villarreal22.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Deportivo Alavés42.5

Villarreal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Deportivo Alavés52.5

Villarreal61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Deportivo Alavés27 matchesVillarreal26 matches

1.11 goals/matchGoals scored27/26▲1.85 goals/match

1.48 goals/matchGoals allowed27/26▲1.38 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals27/26▲1.79 xG/match

10.7 shots/matchShots27/26▲14.7 shots/match

3.59 shots/matchShots on target27/26▲4.69 shots/match

45.4%Possession27/26●49.1%

4.52 corners/matchCorners27/26●4.81 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

15.9 fouls/matchFouls27/2611.5 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Deportivo Alavés13 matchesVillarreal14 matches

0.85 goals/matchGoals scored13/14▲1.43 goals/match

1 goals/match▲Goals allowed13/141.21 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals13/14▲1.59 xG/match

10.3 shots/matchShots13/14▲14.3 shots/match

3.38 shots/matchShots on target13/14▲4.29 shots/match

46.8%Possession13/14●49.9%

5.77 corners/match●Corners13/144.86 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

14.5 fouls/matchFouls13/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

5.91 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/114 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 26home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4