PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Villarreal 1–2 Real Madrid · La Liga

1–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 1–2.

Shots
239
Shots on target
105
Expected goals
1.641.01
Possession
46%54%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Villarreal 2–1. Recorded in this match (Villarreal – Real Madrid): shots 23–9, shots on target 10–5, expected goals 1.64–1.01, possession 46%–54%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.81 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.81 goals/match1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match ▲ShotsVillarreal · Real Madrid15.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealReal MadridBaseline
Shots15 shots/match15.9 shots/match11 shots/match
Shots against11.8 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

49%PossessionVillarreal · Real Madrid● 60.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealReal MadridBaseline
Possession49%60.4%50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots23 shots9 shotsVillarreal 23 shots, Real Madrid 9 shots
  • Shots on target10 shots5 shotsVillarreal 10 shots, Real Madrid 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.64 xG1.01 xGVillarreal 1.64 xG, Real Madrid 1.01 xG
  • Possession46%54%Villarreal 46%, Real Madrid 54%
  • Corners11 corners4 cornersVillarreal 11 corners, Real Madrid 4 corners
  • Fouls17 fouls3 foulsVillarreal 17 fouls, Real Madrid 3 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alex Baena · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAlex Baena · Villarreal · 59′ · 0.01 xG · on targetFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 79′ · 0.01 xG · on targetLogan Costa · Villarreal · 89′ · 0.01 xG · on targetTajon Buchanan · Villarreal · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Vázquez · Real Madrid · 13′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 18′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAlex Baena · Villarreal · 66′ · 0.02 xG · on targetPape Gueye · Villarreal · 67′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedArda Güler · Real Madrid · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.04 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 12′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedFederico Valverde · Real Madrid · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDenis Suárez · Villarreal · 89′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 24′ · 0.05 xG · on targetNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 45′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 58′ · 0.05 xG · on targetAlex Baena · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 64′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 36′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedRodrygo · Real Madrid · 44′ · 0.08 xG · on targetPape Gueye · Villarreal · 62′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 5′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 73′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedWilly Kambwala · Villarreal · 89′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 23′ · 0.12 xG · goalAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 83′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 49′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJuan Foyth · Villarreal · 53′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedKylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.32 xG · goalJuan Foyth · Villarreal · 7′ · 0.37 xG · goalBrahim Díaz · Real Madrid · 17′ · 0.54 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 23 shots, 10 on target, 1.64 xG. Real Madrid: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Juan Foyth · Villarreal · 7′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 17′Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.64 xG · Real Madrid 1.25 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Villarreal
1Draws
2Real Madrid
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–0
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga4–4
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga4–1
Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–3
Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Villarreal favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Villarreal27 matchesReal Madrid28 matches
1.81 goals/matchGoals scored27/28▲ 2.11 goals/match
1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/28▲ 0.96 goals/match
1.79 xG/matchExpected goals27/28▲ 1.95 xG/match
15 shots/matchShots27/28▲ 15.9 shots/match
4.89 shots/matchShots on target27/28▲ 6.21 shots/match
49%Possession27/28● 60.4%
5.04 corners/matchCorners27/28● 5.5 corners/match
11.7 fouls/matchFouls27/288.82 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples27 / 28home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Mar 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsVillarrealReal Madrid
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headVillarreal — Real Madrid
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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