La Liga · 2024Sat, 15 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Villarreal

WWDWL

1–2Full-time recap

Real Madrid

DDWLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Villarreal	Real Madrid
Shots	23 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	10 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Expected goals	1.64 xG/match▲	1.01 xG/match
Possession	46%	54%●
Corners	11 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	17 fouls/match	3 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Villarreal: 23 shots, 10 on target, 1.64 xG. Real Madrid: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.25 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 1.64 xG · Real Madrid 1.25 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Villarreal's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Villarreal's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.81 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.81 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

15 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Real Madrid15.9 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Real Madrid	Baseline
Shots	15 shots/match	15.9 shots/match	11 shots/match
Shots against	11.8 shots/match	10.5 shots/match	11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

49%PossessionVillarreal · Real Madrid●60.4%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 11.5 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Villarreal	Real Madrid	Baseline
Possession	49%	60.4%	50%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

2Villarreal

1Draws

2Real Madrid

5 Oct 2024Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–0

19 May 2024Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga4–4

17 Dec 2023Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga4–1

8 Apr 2023Real Madrid — Villarreal · La Liga2–3

7 Jan 2023Villarreal — Real Madrid · La Liga2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Real Madrid in 10 · 3 too close

1.81 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 27/28▲2.11 goals/match

1.41 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 27/28▲0.96 goals/match

1.79 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 27/28▲1.95 xG/match

1.13 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 27/28▲1.05 xG/match

15 shots/matchShotsseason · 27/28▲15.9 shots/match

11.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 27/28▲10.5 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 27/28▲6.21 shots/match

4.22 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 27/28▲3.18 shots/match

49%Possessionseason · 27/28●60.4%

5.04 corners/matchCornersseason · 27/28●5.5 corners/match

4.3 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 27/284.43 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 27/288.82 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

11%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 27/28▲36%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 27/28▲93%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal42.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal87.5

Real Madrid92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal40.8

Real Madrid79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal97.5

Real Madrid77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal22.5

Real Madrid2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal52.5

Real Madrid87.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal62.5

Real Madrid68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal27 matchesReal Madrid28 matches

1.81 goals/matchGoals scored27/28▲2.11 goals/match

1.41 goals/matchGoals allowed27/28▲0.96 goals/match

1.79 xG/matchExpected goals27/28▲1.95 xG/match

15 shots/matchShots27/28▲15.9 shots/match

4.89 shots/matchShots on target27/28▲6.21 shots/match

49%Possession27/28●60.4%

5.04 corners/matchCorners27/28●5.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls27/288.82 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal13 matchesReal Madrid15 matches

2.23 goals/match▲Goals scored13/151.73 goals/match

1.62 goals/matchGoals allowed13/15▲1 goals/match

1.99 xG/match▲Expected goals13/151.52 xG/match

15.8 shots/match▲Shots13/1514.5 shots/match

5.54 shots/matchShots on target13/155.47 shots/match

47.9%Possession13/15●60.2%

5.23 corners/match●Corners13/154.4 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls13/158.87 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.09 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples27 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 15 Mar 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4