La Liga · 2024Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 15:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Sevilla

LWDDW

0–1Full-time recap

Athletic Club

WDWLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Sevilla	Athletic Club
Shots	11 shots/match▲	9 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match	4 shots/match
Expected goals	0.55 xG/match	1.3 xG/match▲
Possession	62%●	38%
Corners	4 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	13 fouls/match	13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Sevilla: 11 shots, 4 on target, 0.56 xG. Athletic Club: 9 shots, 4 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Sevilla 0.56 xG · Athletic Club 1.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Sevilla's recent record differs from the season

weak

Sevilla's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.4 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.4 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.14 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Sevilla

2Draws

2Athletic Club

29 Sept 2024Athletic Club — Sevilla · La Liga1–1

19 May 2024Athletic Club — Sevilla · La Liga2–0

4 Jan 2024Sevilla — Athletic Club · La Liga0–2

27 Apr 2023Athletic Club — Sevilla · La Liga0–1

8 Oct 2022Sevilla — Athletic Club · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Sevilla favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Athletic Club in 10 · 2 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 28/28▲1.64 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 28/28▲1.53 xG/match

1.34 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/28▲0.92 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/28▲13.4 shots/match

10.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/28▲8.5 shots/match

3.93 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 28/28▲4.54 shots/match

3.86 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/28▲3.04 shots/match

52.2%●Possessionseason · 28/2848.9%

5.07 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/28●5.43 corners/match

4.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/28▲3.75 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2812.3 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

32%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2829%

79%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/28▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Sevilla67.5

Athletic Club42.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Sevilla56.7

Athletic Club79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Sevilla53.3

Athletic Club90

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Sevilla52.5

Athletic Club92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Sevilla45

Athletic Club57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Sevilla60

Athletic Club82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Sevilla56.9

Athletic Club73.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Sevilla28 matchesAthletic Club28 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored28/28▲1.64 goals/match

1.32 goals/matchGoals allowed28/28▲0.86 goals/match

1.04 xG/matchExpected goals28/28▲1.53 xG/match

12.3 shots/matchShots28/28▲13.4 shots/match

3.93 shots/matchShots on target28/28▲4.54 shots/match

52.2%●Possession28/2848.9%

5.07 corners/matchCorners28/28●5.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.1 fouls/matchFouls28/2812.3 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Sevilla14 matchesAthletic Club14 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲1.36 goals/match

1.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.07 goals/match

1.11 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.32 xG/match

13.9 shots/match▲Shots14/1412.5 shots/match

4.14 shots/match▲Shots on target14/143.86 shots/match

55.6%●Possession14/1448.2%

5.43 corners/matchCorners14/145.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls14/1412.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.91 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples28 / 28home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 16 Mar 2025, 19:15 UTC · analysis-v4