PitchMath
La Liga · 2024

Athletic Club 3–1 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Athletic Club won 3–1.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
43
Expected goals
1.71.56
Possession
54%46%

Full time

What the match recorded

Athletic Club beat Rayo Vallecano 3–1. Recorded in this match (Athletic Club – Rayo Vallecano): shots 13–11, shots on target 4–3, expected goals 1.7–1.56, possession 54%–46%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Athletic Club's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Athletic Club's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.58 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.58 goals/match1.15 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Athletic Club show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Athletic Club's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.2 shots/match ▲ShotsAthletic Club · Rayo Vallecano13.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAthletic ClubRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots13.2 shots/match13.2 shots/match11.1 shots/match
Shots against8.58 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsAthletic Club 13 shots, Rayo Vallecano 11 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots3 shotsAthletic Club 4 shots, Rayo Vallecano 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.7 xG1.56 xGAthletic Club 1.7 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.56 xG
  • Possession54%46%Athletic Club 54%, Rayo Vallecano 46%
  • Corners7 corners1 cornerAthletic Club 7 corners, Rayo Vallecano 1 corner
  • Fouls12 fouls7 foulsAthletic Club 12 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Gorka Guruzeta · Athletic Club · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMaroan Sannadi · Athletic Club · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club · 11′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 62′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMaroan Sannadi · Athletic Club · 69′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.03 xG · on targetNico Williams · Athletic Club · 80′ · 0.03 xG · goalFlorian Lejeune · Rayo Vallecano · 85′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedUnai Gómez · Athletic Club · 20′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJorge de Frutos · Rayo Vallecano · 65′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 45′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.10 xG · goalÁlvaro García · Rayo Vallecano · 13′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedGerard Gumbau · Rayo Vallecano · 43′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedPacha · Rayo Vallecano · 78′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedIñaki Williams · Athletic Club · 80′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedÁlex Berenguer · Athletic Club · 52′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedIsi Palazón · Rayo Vallecano · 90′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 1′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedPathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.16 xG · goalMikel Jauregizar · Athletic Club · 90′ · 0.16 xG · on targetPedro Díaz · Rayo Vallecano · 37′ · 0.82 xG · on targetOihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 58′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Athletic Club: 13 shots, 4 on target, 1.65 xG. Rayo Vallecano: 11 shots, 3 on target, 1.80 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 58′Nico Williams · Athletic Club · 80′Oihan Sancet · Athletic Club · 90′Pathé Ismaël Ciss · Rayo Vallecano · 37′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Athletic Club 1.65 xG · Rayo Vallecano 1.80 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

4Athletic Club
1Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga1–2
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga0–1
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga4–0
Rayo Vallecano — Athletic Club · La Liga0–0
Athletic Club — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga3–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Athletic Club favored in 9 of 11 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 0 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Athletic Club31 matchesRayo Vallecano31 matches
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals scored31/311.1 goals/match
0.81 goals/match ▲Goals allowed31/311.23 goals/match
1.48 xG/match ▲Expected goals31/311.21 xG/match
13.2 shots/matchShots31/3113.2 shots/match
4.45 shots/match ▲Shots on target31/314.13 shots/match
49.3%Possession31/31● 51%
5.39 corners/match ●Corners31/315.03 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls31/3114 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples31 / 31home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 13 Apr 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAthletic ClubRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa LigaLa Liga 2024/25
Head-to-headAthletic Club — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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