PitchMath
La Liga · 2024Sat, 3 May 2025, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
4–2Full-time recap

Osasuna

DDWWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricVillarrealOsasuna
Shots15 shots/match▲11 shots/match
Shots on target5 shots/match▲4 shots/match
Expected goals2.19 xG/match▲1.26 xG/match
Possession44%56%●
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Aimar Oroz · Osasuna · 45′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 56′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedIker Muñoz · Osasuna · 78′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAnte Budimir · Osasuna · 11′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBryan Zaragoza · Osasuna · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLucas Torró · Osasuna · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 10′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJuan Foyth · Villarreal · 32′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJuan Foyth · Villarreal · 10′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedThierno Barry · Villarreal · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedPape Gueye · Villarreal · 19′ · 0.07 xG · on targetEnzo Boyomo · Osasuna · 30′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedIker Muñoz · Osasuna · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEnzo Boyomo · Osasuna · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSanti Comesaña · Villarreal · 46′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSergi Cardona · Villarreal · 43′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedRubén García · Osasuna · 66′ · 0.12 xG · goalNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 19′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedAimar Oroz · Osasuna · 77′ · 0.15 xG · on targetAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 39′ · 0.17 xG · goalThierno Barry · Villarreal · 33′ · 0.23 xG · goalAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 2′ · 0.30 xG · goalAyoze Pérez · Villarreal · 87′ · 0.30 xG · off target or blockedNicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 71′ · 0.56 xG · goalAimar Oroz · Osasuna · 81′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Villarreal: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.24 xG. Osasuna: 11 shots, 4 on target, 1.40 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 2′Thierno Barry · Villarreal · 33′Ayoze Pérez · Villarreal · 39′Nicolas Pépé · Villarreal · 71′Rubén García · Osasuna · 66′Aimar Oroz · Osasuna · 81′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Villarreal 2.24 xG · Osasuna 1.40 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Osasuna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Osasuna's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Osasuna's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.24 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.8 goals/match1.24 goals/match1.18 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Villarreal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Villarreal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match▲ShotsVillarreal · Osasuna10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricVillarrealOsasunaBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.2 shots/match
Shots against12.1 shots/match12.3 shots/match11.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Osasuna have a visible away split

moderate

Osasuna's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.76 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season10.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots8.76 shots/match10.5 shots/match11.2 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Villarreal
2Draws
0Osasuna
Osasuna — Villarreal · La Liga2–2
Osasuna — Villarreal · La Liga1–1
Villarreal — Osasuna · La Liga3–1
Osasuna — Villarreal · La Liga0–3
Villarreal — Osasuna · La Liga2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Villarreal favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Osasuna in 1 · 3 too close

1.76 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 34/341.24 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 34/341.47 goals/match
1.73 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 34/341.16 xG/match
1.21 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 34/341.46 xG/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 34/3410.5 shots/match
12.1 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 34/3412.3 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 34/343.41 shots/match
4.21 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 34/345 shots/match
48.3%●Possessionseason · 34/3446.2%
5.03 corners/match●Cornersseason · 34/344.35 corners/match
4.5 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 34/344.91 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 34/3413.7 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 34/34▲21%
82%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 34/3476%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Villarreal42.5
Osasuna32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Villarreal84.2
Osasuna42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Villarreal35
Osasuna24.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Villarreal97.5
Osasuna42.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Villarreal42.5
Osasuna82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Villarreal60
Osasuna37.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Villarreal66.9
Osasuna46.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Villarreal34 matchesOsasuna34 matches
1.76 goals/match▲Goals scored34/341.24 goals/match
1.38 goals/match▲Goals allowed34/341.47 goals/match
1.73 xG/match▲Expected goals34/341.16 xG/match
14.3 shots/match▲Shots34/3410.5 shots/match
4.62 shots/match▲Shots on target34/343.41 shots/match
48.3%●Possession34/3446.2%
5.03 corners/match●Corners34/344.35 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.1 fouls/matchFouls34/3413.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Villarreal17 matchesOsasuna17 matches
2.12 goals/match▲Goals scored17/170.76 goals/match
1.47 goals/match▲Goals allowed17/171.59 goals/match
1.96 xG/match▲Expected goals17/170.9 xG/match
15.6 shots/match▲Shots17/178.76 shots/match
5.35 shots/match▲Shots on target17/172.41 shots/match
48.6%●Possession17/1744.2%
5.53 corners/match●Corners17/173.88 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12 fouls/matchFouls17/1713.7 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.89 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples34 / 34home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 3 May 2025, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsVillarrealOsasuna
CompetitionLa Liga
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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