La Liga · 2024Sat, 10 May 2025, 14:15 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Celta Vigo

WLLWL

3–2Full-time recap

Sevilla

LLDLD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Celta Vigo	Sevilla
Shots	8 shots/match	19 shots/match▲
Shots on target	4 shots/match	10 shots/match▲
Expected goals	0.71 xG/match	2.31 xG/match▲
Possession	50%	50%
Corners	3 corners/match	6 corners/match●
Fouls	11 fouls/match	16 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Celta Vigo: 8 shots, 4 on target, 0.91 xG. Sevilla: 19 shots, 10 on target, 2.39 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Celta Vigo 0.91 xG · Sevilla 2.39 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Celta Vigo's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Celta Vigo's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.57 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.57 goals/match	1.16 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Celta Vigo

3Draws

1Sevilla

14 Dec 2024Sevilla — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–0

17 Mar 2024Sevilla — Celta Vigo · La Liga1–2

4 Nov 2023Celta Vigo — Sevilla · La Liga1–1

7 Apr 2023Sevilla — Celta Vigo · La Liga2–2

30 Dec 2022Celta Vigo — Sevilla · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Celta Vigo favored in 6 of 13 directional metrics · Sevilla in 3 · 4 too close

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 35/351.11 goals/match

1.54 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 35/35▲1.4 goals/match

1.43 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 35/351.12 xG/match

1.13 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 35/351.26 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 35/35▲12.6 shots/match

10.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 35/3510.6 shots/match

4.69 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 35/354.14 shots/match

3.97 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 35/353.83 shots/match

53.6%●Possessionseason · 35/3551.2%

3.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 35/35●5 corners/match

4.03 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 35/354.37 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 35/3512.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 35/35▲26%

89%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 35/3577%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Celta Vigo77.5

Sevilla57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Celta Vigo70.8

Sevilla55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Celta Vigo39.2

Sevilla55.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Celta Vigo32.5

Sevilla62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo52.5

Sevilla62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Celta Vigo12.5

Sevilla60

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Celta Vigo50

Sevilla61.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Celta Vigo35 matchesSevilla35 matches

1.57 goals/match▲Goals scored35/351.11 goals/match

1.54 goals/matchGoals allowed35/35▲1.4 goals/match

1.43 xG/match▲Expected goals35/351.12 xG/match

11.6 shots/matchShots35/35▲12.6 shots/match

4.69 shots/match▲Shots on target35/354.14 shots/match

53.6%●Possession35/3551.2%

3.8 corners/matchCorners35/35●5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls35/3512.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Celta Vigo18 matchesSevilla18 matches

1.72 goals/match▲Goals scored18/181.28 goals/match

1.06 goals/match▲Goals allowed18/181.56 goals/match

1.44 xG/match▲Expected goals18/181.03 xG/match

11.7 shots/match▲Shots18/1811.1 shots/match

5.22 shots/match▲Shots on target18/184 shots/match

53.6%●Possession18/1848.2%

4.22 corners/matchCorners18/18●4.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.4 fouls/matchFouls18/1812.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

6.09 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples35 / 35home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 10 May 2025, 18:15 UTC · analysis-v4