Premier League · 2023Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Bournemouth

LWLWW

2–2Full-time recap

Aston Villa

WWLWW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa
Shots	15 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	7 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.02 xG/match▲	0.68 xG/match
Possession	37%	63%●
Corners	7 corners/match	7 corners/match
Fouls	16 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Bournemouth: 15 shots, 7 on target, 2.05 xG. Aston Villa: 11 shots, 3 on target, 0.69 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Bournemouth 2.05 xG · Aston Villa 0.69 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Bournemouth's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Bournemouth's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.46 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12.6 shots/match▲ShotsBournemouth · Aston Villa14.6 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa	Baseline
Shots	12.6 shots/match	14.6 shots/match	13.6 shots/match
Shots against	16 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

42.9%PossessionBournemouth · Aston Villa●53.3%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 10.4 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Bournemouth	Aston Villa	Baseline
Possession	42.9%	53.3%	49.9%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Bournemouth

0Draws

1Aston Villa

18 Mar 2023Aston Villa — Bournemouth · Premier League3–0

6 Aug 2022Bournemouth — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Bournemouth favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 10 · 3 too close

1.14 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 14/14▲2.36 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.43 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 14/14▲1.9 xG/match

1.84 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 14/14▲1.46 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 14/14▲14.6 shots/match

16 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 14/14▲11.1 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 14/14▲5.5 shots/match

5.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 14/14▲4.43 shots/match

42.9%Possessionseason · 14/14●53.3%

5.14 corners/matchCornersseason · 14/14●5.93 corners/match

6.5 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 14/14▲4.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 14/1410.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

14%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 14/1414%

71%Scoring frequencyseason · 14/14▲86%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Bournemouth22.5

Aston Villa62.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Bournemouth45.8

Aston Villa79.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Bournemouth13.3

Aston Villa69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Bournemouth77.5

Aston Villa67.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth92.5

Aston Villa32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Bournemouth55

Aston Villa77.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Bournemouth62.5

Aston Villa63.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Bournemouth14 matchesAston Villa14 matches

1.14 goals/matchGoals scored14/14▲2.36 goals/match

2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed14/14▲1.43 goals/match

1.35 xG/matchExpected goals14/14▲1.9 xG/match

12.6 shots/matchShots14/14▲14.6 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target14/14▲5.5 shots/match

42.9%Possession14/14●53.3%

5.14 corners/matchCorners14/14●5.93 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.7 fouls/matchFouls14/1410.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Bournemouth8 matchesAston Villa8 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.25 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.88 goals/match

1.24 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲1.44 xG/match

12.5 shots/matchShots8/8▲14.1 shots/match

5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/84.63 shots/match

43.3%Possession8/8●50.1%

6.13 corners/matchCorners8/8●6.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.96 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples14 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 3 Dec 2023, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4