Premier League · 2024Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Brentford

LWLLD

5–3Full-time recap

Wolverhampton

LDLLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Brentford	Wolverhampton
Shots	19 shots/match▲	17 shots/match
Shots on target	12 shots/match▲	6 shots/match
Expected goals	4.25 xG/match▲	1.05 xG/match
Possession	44%	56%●
Corners	10 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	9 fouls/match	10 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Brentford: 19 shots, 12 on target, 4.29 xG. Wolverhampton: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 4.29 xG · Wolverhampton 1.04 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average. A second useful context is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Brentford have a visible home split

weak

Brentford's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season11.1 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

Metric	Home only	Season	Baseline
Shots	14 shots/match	11.1 shots/match	12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

weak

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.86 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2.2 goals/match	1.86 goals/match	1.36 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Wolverhampton show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Wolverhampton's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.1 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Wolverhampton11.3 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

Metric	Brentford	Wolverhampton	Baseline
Shots	11.1 shots/match	11.3 shots/match	12.7 shots/match
Shots against	18.3 shots/match	14.3 shots/match	13.4 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Brentford

1Draws

3Wolverhampton

10 Feb 2024Wolverhampton — Brentford · Premier League0–2

27 Dec 2023Brentford — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–4

15 Apr 2023Wolverhampton — Brentford · Premier League2–0

29 Oct 2022Brentford — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

22 Jan 2022Brentford — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Wolverhampton in 1 · 7 too close

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 7/71.29 goals/match

1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 7/73 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 7/70.94 xG/match

1.87 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 7/72 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShotsseason · 7/711.3 shots/match

18.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 7/7▲14.3 shots/match

5.71 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 7/74 shots/match

6.57 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 7/76.71 shots/match

45.7%Possessionseason · 7/7●47.4%

4.86 corners/match●Cornersseason · 7/73.43 corners/match

7.71 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 7/77.57 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

6.57 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 7/714.9 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 7/70%

86%Scoring frequencyseason · 7/786%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford30

Wolverhampton37.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford56.7

Wolverhampton33.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford12.5

Wolverhampton15

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford37.5

Wolverhampton27.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford5

Wolverhampton97.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford45

Wolverhampton12.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford37.5

Wolverhampton41.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford7 matchesWolverhampton7 matches

1.86 goals/match▲Goals scored7/71.29 goals/match

1.86 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/73 goals/match

1.61 xG/match▲Expected goals7/70.94 xG/match

11.1 shots/matchShots7/711.3 shots/match

5.71 shots/match▲Shots on target7/74 shots/match

45.7%Possession7/7●47.4%

4.86 corners/match●Corners7/73.43 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

6.57 fouls/matchFouls7/714.9 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford4 matchesWolverhampton4 matches

2.75 goals/match▲Goals scored4/41.25 goals/match

1.5 goals/match▲Goals allowed4/42.75 goals/match

2.25 xG/match▲Expected goals4/40.69 xG/match

14 shots/match▲Shots4/411.8 shots/match

6.75 shots/match▲Shots on target4/44 shots/match

46%Possession4/4●49.5%

5.75 corners/match●Corners4/43.25 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

6.75 fouls/matchFouls4/414.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited

Season samples7 / 7home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Oct 2024, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4