Premier League · 2024Sun, 10 Nov 2024, 16:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Chelsea

WDLWD

1–1Full-time recap

Arsenal

WWLDL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Chelsea	Arsenal
Shots	17 shots/match▲	13 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.54 xG/match	1.55 xG/match▲
Possession	49%	51%●
Corners	4 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	12 fouls/match	12 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Chelsea: 17 shots, 3 on target, 1.54 xG. Arsenal: 13 shots, 3 on target, 1.55 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Chelsea 1.54 xG · Arsenal 1.55 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

8.33 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

Metric	Away only	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.33 shots/match	13.8 shots/match	13.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Chelsea's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Chelsea's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.91 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1.2 goals/match	1.91 goals/match	1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Chelsea

1Draws

4Arsenal

23 Apr 2024Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League5–0

21 Oct 2023Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–2

2 May 2023Arsenal — Chelsea · Premier League3–1

6 Nov 2022Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League0–1

20 Apr 2022Chelsea — Arsenal · Premier League2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Chelsea favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 4 · 4 too close

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 11/111.64 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.09 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 11/111.57 xG/match

1.38 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 11/11▲1.1 xG/match

14 shots/matchShotsseason · 11/1113.8 shots/match

12.8 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 11/1113.7 shots/match

5.09 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 11/114.91 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 11/11▲4.18 shots/match

54.7%●Possessionseason · 11/1150.4%

5.82 corners/matchCornersseason · 11/115.82 corners/match

3.73 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 11/114.27 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/1112.8 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

18%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 11/11▲27%

91%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 11/1182%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Chelsea77.5

Arsenal52.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Chelsea65.8

Arsenal56.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Chelsea53.3

Arsenal60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Chelsea37.5

Arsenal57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Chelsea52.5

Arsenal82.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Chelsea72.5

Arsenal72.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Chelsea60.6

Arsenal64.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Chelsea11 matchesArsenal11 matches

1.91 goals/match▲Goals scored11/111.64 goals/match

1.18 goals/matchGoals allowed11/11▲1.09 goals/match

1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals11/111.57 xG/match

14 shots/matchShots11/1113.8 shots/match

5.09 shots/matchShots on target11/114.91 shots/match

54.7%●Possession11/1150.4%

5.82 corners/matchCorners11/115.82 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls11/1112.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Chelsea6 matchesArsenal6 matches

1.5 goals/match▲Goals scored6/61 goals/match

1.33 goals/matchGoals allowed6/6▲1 goals/match

2.19 xG/match▲Expected goals6/60.93 xG/match

15.7 shots/match▲Shots6/68.33 shots/match

5.83 shots/match▲Shots on target6/62.67 shots/match

52.8%●Possession6/647.7%

6.33 corners/match●Corners6/63.67 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.5 fouls/matchFouls6/612.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.17 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples11 / 11home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sun, 10 Nov 2024, 20:30 UTC · analysis-v4