PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–5Full-time recap

Arsenal

LDLDW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricWest Ham UnitedArsenal
Shots12 shots/match16 shots/match▲
Shots on target5 shots/match7 shots/match▲
Expected goals1.54 xG/match3.6 xG/match▲
Possession40%60%●
Corners2 corners/match10 corners/match●
Fouls10 fouls/match13 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 30′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 38′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · West Ham United · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 59′ · 0.03 xG · on targetBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 59′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 22′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJarrod Bowen · West Ham United · 53′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham United · 79′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 25′ · 0.05 xG · on targetJurriën Timber · Arsenal · 29′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRiccardo Calafiori · Arsenal · 49′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Jesus · Arsenal · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMichail Antonio · West Ham United · 55′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedGuido Rodríguez · West Ham United · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTomáš Souček · West Ham United · 77′ · 0.08 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 89′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedEmerson Palmieri · West Ham United · 40′ · 0.09 xG · goalDanny Ings · West Ham United · 79′ · 0.10 xG · on targetRaheem Sterling · Arsenal · 85′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedLucas Paquetá · West Ham United · 39′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedGabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 10′ · 0.19 xG · goalAaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham United · 38′ · 0.40 xG · goalDanny Ings · West Ham United · 90′ · 0.46 xG · off target or blockedKai Havertz · Arsenal · 36′ · 0.60 xG · goalLeandro Trossard · Arsenal · 27′ · 0.65 xG · goalMartin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 34′ · 0.82 xG · goalBukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

West Ham United: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.53 xG. Arsenal: 16 shots, 7 on target, 3.65 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0240′HT90′Aaron Wan-Bissaka · West Ham United · 38′Emerson Palmieri · West Ham United · 40′Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal · 10′Leandro Trossard · Arsenal · 27′Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal · 34′Kai Havertz · Arsenal · 36′Bukayo Saka · Arsenal · 45′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: West Ham United 1.53 xG · Arsenal 3.65 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Arsenal have a visible away split

moderate

Arsenal's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.43 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.43 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

West Ham United's recent record differs from the season

weak

West Ham United's last-five shots average is below their season average.

10.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots10.8 shots/match13.5 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Arsenal show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Arsenal's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

13.5 shots/match▲ShotsWest Ham United · Arsenal14.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricWest Ham UnitedArsenalBaseline
Shots13.5 shots/match14.4 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against16.4 shots/match13.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1West Ham United
1Draws
3Arsenal
West Ham United — Arsenal · Premier League0–6
Arsenal — West Ham United · Premier League0–2
West Ham United — Arsenal · Premier League2–2
Arsenal — West Ham United · Premier League3–1
West Ham United — Arsenal · Premier League1–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

West Ham United favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Arsenal in 11 · 2 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/13▲2 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.08 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/13▲1.7 xG/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/13▲1.07 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 13/13▲14.4 shots/match
16.4 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 13/13▲13.1 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 13/13▲5.23 shots/match
4.54 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 13/13▲3.92 shots/match
45.3%Possessionseason · 13/13●52.3%
4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 13/13●6.31 corners/match
6.85 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 13/13▲3.85 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 13/1312.6 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
23%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/13▲31%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/13▲85%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

West Ham United27.5
Arsenal57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

West Ham United40.8
Arsenal75.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

West Ham United28.3
Arsenal70
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

West Ham United72.5
Arsenal62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

West Ham United72.5
Arsenal82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

West Ham United17.5
Arsenal87.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

West Ham United42.5
Arsenal77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

West Ham United13 matchesArsenal13 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored13/13▲2 goals/match
1.85 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲1.08 goals/match
1.39 xG/matchExpected goals13/13▲1.7 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots13/13▲14.4 shots/match
4.62 shots/matchShots on target13/13▲5.23 shots/match
45.3%Possession13/13●52.3%
4.54 corners/matchCorners13/13●6.31 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
12.4 fouls/matchFouls13/1312.6 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

West Ham United7 matchesArsenal7 matches
1.43 goals/matchGoals scored7/7▲1.57 goals/match
2.14 goals/matchGoals allowed7/7▲1.14 goals/match
1.89 xG/match▲Expected goals7/71.31 xG/match
13.9 shots/match▲Shots7/79.43 shots/match
5.57 shots/match▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
46%Possession7/7●49.4%
4.86 corners/match●Corners7/74.57 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.9 fouls/matchFouls7/712.9 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

4.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Nov 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsWest Ham UnitedArsenal
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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