Premier League · 2024Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Liverpool

WWWWD

2–2Full-time recap

Fulham

WLDWD

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Liverpool	Fulham
Shots	16 shots/match▲	12 shots/match
Shots on target	4 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	2.13 xG/match▲	1.22 xG/match
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	5 corners/match●	4 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	7 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Liverpool: 16 shots, 4 on target, 2.09 xG. Fulham: 12 shots, 3 on target, 1.18 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Liverpool 2.09 xG · Fulham 1.18 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Fulham's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fulham's last-five shots average is below their season average.

8.8 shots/match▲ShotsLast 5 · Season13.5 shots/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Shots	8.8 shots/match	13.5 shots/match	13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Fulham.

9.81 days▲Rest daysLiverpool · Fulham6.04 days

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

Metric	Liverpool	Fulham	Baseline
Rest days	9.81 days	6.04 days	—
Matches last 14 days	2 matches	3 matches	—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

3Liverpool

1Draws

0Fulham

21 Apr 2024Fulham — Liverpool · Premier League1–3

3 Dec 2023Liverpool — Fulham · Premier League4–3

3 May 2023Liverpool — Fulham · Premier League1–0

6 Aug 2022Fulham — Liverpool · Premier League2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Liverpool favored in 10 of 13 directional metrics · Fulham in 0 · 3 too close

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 15/161.5 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 15/161.38 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 15/161.36 xG/match

0.99 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 15/161.28 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 15/1613.5 shots/match

10.3 shots/match▲Shots allowedseason · 15/1612.1 shots/match

6.2 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 15/164.75 shots/match

3.47 shots/match▲Shots on target allowedseason · 15/164.06 shots/match

57.1%●Possessionseason · 15/1650.8%

6.13 corners/match●Cornersseason · 15/165.75 corners/match

4.33 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 15/165.06 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1611.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

47%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/1613%

93%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1694%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Liverpool87.5

Fulham57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Liverpool90.8

Fulham50

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Liverpool94.2

Fulham60.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Liverpool52.5

Fulham47.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Liverpool57.5

Fulham32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Liverpool67.5

Fulham57.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Liverpool77.5

Fulham46.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Liverpool15 matchesFulham16 matches

2.07 goals/match▲Goals scored15/161.5 goals/match

0.87 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/161.38 goals/match

2.09 xG/match▲Expected goals15/161.36 xG/match

15.5 shots/match▲Shots15/1613.5 shots/match

6.2 shots/match▲Shots on target15/164.75 shots/match

57.1%●Possession15/1650.8%

6.13 corners/match●Corners15/165.75 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.7 fouls/matchFouls15/1611.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Liverpool8 matchesFulham8 matches

1.88 goals/match▲Goals scored8/81.25 goals/match

0.63 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/81.13 goals/match

2.12 xG/match▲Expected goals8/81.4 xG/match

15.6 shots/match▲Shots8/812.6 shots/match

6.88 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.88 shots/match

56.1%●Possession8/851.1%

5.38 corners/matchCorners8/8●5.88 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.9 fouls/matchFouls8/811.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.81 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.04 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples15 / 16home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4