PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Nottingham Forest 2–1 Aston Villa · Premier League

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 2–1.

Shots
178
Shots on target
62
Expected goals
1.650.44
Possession
50%50%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1. Recorded in this match (Nottingham Forest – Aston Villa): shots 17–8, shots on target 6–2, expected goals 1.65–0.44, possession 50%–50%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa.

7 days ▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Aston Villa7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Rest days7 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%PossessionNottingham Forest · Aston Villa● 50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Possession40.6%50.6%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots8 shotsNottingham Forest 17 shots, Aston Villa 8 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots2 shotsNottingham Forest 6 shots, Aston Villa 2 shots
  • Expected goals1.65 xG0.44 xGNottingham Forest 1.65 xG, Aston Villa 0.44 xG
  • Possession50%50%Nottingham Forest 50%, Aston Villa 50%
  • Corners4 corners3 cornersNottingham Forest 4 corners, Aston Villa 3 corners
  • Fouls12 fouls5 foulsNottingham Forest 12 fouls, Aston Villa 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jhon Durán · Aston Villa · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 63′ · 0.04 xG · goalElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.11 xG · on targetEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.20 xG · goalNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 60′ · 0.45 xG · on targetNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 87′ · 0.46 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.82 xG. Aston Villa: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 87′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′Jhon Durán · Aston Villa · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.82 xG · Aston Villa 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Nottingham Forest
1Draws
2Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–2
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nottingham Forest favored in 5 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest16 matchesAston Villa16 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲ 1.5 goals/match
1.19 goals/match ▲Goals allowed16/161.56 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲ 1.64 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots16/1613.1 shots/match
4.63 shots/match ▲Shots on target16/164.31 shots/match
40.6%Possession16/16● 50.6%
4.75 corners/matchCorners16/16● 6.44 corners/match
11.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNottingham ForestAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headNottingham Forest — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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