PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
2–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricNottingham ForestAston Villa
Shots17 shots/match▲8 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match▲2 shots/match
Expected goals1.65 xG/match▲0.44 xG/match
Possession50%50%
Corners4 corners/match●3 corners/match
Fouls12 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jhon Durán · Aston Villa · 18′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 43′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 13′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 21′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMatty Cash · Aston Villa · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 65′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 30′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJhon Durán · Aston Villa · 63′ · 0.04 xG · goalElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 73′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNeco Williams · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 39′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 67′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJohn McGinn · Aston Villa · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 36′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedRyan Yates · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 31′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 79′ · 0.11 xG · on targetEzri Konsa · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAnthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′ · 0.20 xG · goalNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 60′ · 0.45 xG · on targetNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 87′ · 0.46 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Nottingham Forest: 17 shots, 6 on target, 1.82 xG. Aston Villa: 8 shots, 2 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Nikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 87′Anthony Elanga · Nottingham Forest · 90′Jhon Durán · Aston Villa · 63′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Nottingham Forest 1.82 xG · Aston Villa 0.42 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. A second useful context is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season13.1 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.1 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Aston Villa.

7 days▲Rest daysNottingham Forest · Aston Villa7.1 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Rest days7 days7.1 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Aston Villa have recorded the higher season possession share.

40.6%PossessionNottingham Forest · Aston Villa●50.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNottingham ForestAston VillaBaseline
Possession40.6%50.6%50.2%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Nottingham Forest
1Draws
2Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League4–2
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League2–0
Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest · Premier League2–0
Nottingham Forest — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Nottingham Forest favored in 5 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 5 · 3 too close

1.31 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 16/16▲1.5 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowedseason · 16/161.56 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 16/16▲1.64 xG/match
1.1 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 16/161.21 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShotsseason · 16/1613.1 shots/match
13.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 16/16▲11.4 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 16/164.31 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 16/16▲4 shots/match
40.6%Possessionseason · 16/16●50.6%
4.75 corners/matchCornersseason · 16/16●6.44 corners/match
6.19 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 16/16▲3.88 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 16/1611.8 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
31%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 16/1613%
81%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 16/1675%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Nottingham Forest7.5
Aston Villa52.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Aston Villa39.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Nottingham Forest64.2
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Nottingham Forest92.5
Aston Villa32.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest37.5
Aston Villa62.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Nottingham Forest32.5
Aston Villa77.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Nottingham Forest38.1
Aston Villa51.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Nottingham Forest16 matchesAston Villa16 matches
1.31 goals/matchGoals scored16/16▲1.5 goals/match
1.19 goals/match▲Goals allowed16/161.56 goals/match
1.26 xG/matchExpected goals16/16▲1.64 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots16/1613.1 shots/match
4.63 shots/match▲Shots on target16/164.31 shots/match
40.6%Possession16/16●50.6%
4.75 corners/matchCorners16/16●6.44 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.2 fouls/matchFouls16/1611.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Nottingham Forest8 matchesAston Villa8 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲1.38 goals/match
0.88 goals/match▲Goals allowed8/82 goals/match
1.38 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.37 xG/match
14.8 shots/match▲Shots8/811 shots/match
5 shots/match▲Shots on target8/83.13 shots/match
48.5%●Possession8/845.9%
5.88 corners/match●Corners8/84.75 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
11.1 fouls/matchFouls8/812.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.1 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/13 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples16 / 16home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 14 Dec 2024, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsNottingham ForestAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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