Premier League · 2024Mon, 6 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTCFull timeFull-time recap

Wolverhampton

LLWWD

0–3Full-time recap

Nottingham Forest

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This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Wolverhampton	Nottingham Forest
Shots	13 shots/match▲	11 shots/match
Shots on target	6 shots/match▲	3 shots/match
Expected goals	1.59 xG/match	2.13 xG/match▲
Possession	61%●	39%
Corners	5 corners/match●	3 corners/match
Fouls	10 fouls/match	8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Wolverhampton: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.55 xG. Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.17 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.55 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.17 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average. A second useful context is: Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	2 goals/match	1.45 goals/match	1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.8%●PossessionWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest39.6%

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

Metric	Wolverhampton	Nottingham Forest	Baseline
Possession	47.8%	39.6%	50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Wolverhampton

4Draws

0Nottingham Forest

31 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

13 Apr 2024Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–2

9 Dec 2023Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1

1 Apr 2023Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1

15 Oct 2022Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Wolverhampton favored in 1 of 13 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 9 · 3 too close

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 20/201.45 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 20/20▲0.95 goals/match

1.06 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 20/20▲1.29 xG/match

1.66 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 20/20▲1.09 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShotsseason · 20/20▲12.9 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 20/20▲13 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 20/20▲4.65 shots/match

5.3 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 20/20▲4.15 shots/match

47.8%●Possessionseason · 20/2039.6%

3.3 corners/matchCornersseason · 20/20●4.5 corners/match

7.05 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 20/20▲6.25 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 20/2011.2 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 20/20▲45%

85%Scoring frequencyseason · 20/2085%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Wolverhampton37.5

Nottingham Forest2.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Wolverhampton36.7

Nottingham Forest39.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Wolverhampton19.2

Nottingham Forest69.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Wolverhampton17.5

Nottingham Forest92.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton92.5

Nottingham Forest30

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Wolverhampton2.5

Nottingham Forest32.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Wolverhampton35.6

Nottingham Forest35.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Wolverhampton20 matchesNottingham Forest20 matches

1.55 goals/match▲Goals scored20/201.45 goals/match

2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲0.95 goals/match

1.06 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲1.29 xG/match

10.8 shots/matchShots20/20▲12.9 shots/match

4.25 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲4.65 shots/match

47.8%●Possession20/2039.6%

3.3 corners/matchCorners20/20●4.5 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.8 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Wolverhampton10 matchesNottingham Forest11 matches

1.4 goals/matchGoals scored10/11▲1.64 goals/match

2.3 goals/matchGoals allowed10/11▲1.09 goals/match

1.18 xG/matchExpected goals10/11▲1.24 xG/match

10 shots/matchShots10/11▲11.8 shots/match

4.3 shots/matchShots on target10/11▲4.55 shots/match

46.8%●Possession10/1133.9%

3.5 corners/matchCorners10/11●3.73 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls10/1111.1 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

8.21 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/18.21 days

2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited

Season samples20 / 20home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

The fixture is outside the configured active season.
Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.

Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4