PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Wolverhampton 0–3 Nottingham Forest · Premier League

0–3Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Nottingham Forest won 0–3.

Shots
1311
Shots on target
63
Expected goals
1.592.13
Possession
61%39%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nottingham Forest beat Wolverhampton 3–0. Recorded in this match (Wolverhampton – Nottingham Forest): shots 13–11, shots on target 6–3, expected goals 1.59–2.13, possession 61%–39%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Nottingham Forest's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Nottingham Forest's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.45 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for2 goals/match1.45 goals/match1.5 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Wolverhampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

47.8% ●PossessionWolverhampton · Nottingham Forest39.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 8.2 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricWolverhamptonNottingham ForestBaseline
Possession47.8%39.6%50.5%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots11 shotsWolverhampton 13 shots, Nottingham Forest 11 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots3 shotsWolverhampton 6 shots, Nottingham Forest 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.59 xG2.13 xGWolverhampton 1.59 xG, Nottingham Forest 2.13 xG
  • Possession61%39%Wolverhampton 61%, Nottingham Forest 39%
  • Corners5 corners3 cornersWolverhampton 5 corners, Nottingham Forest 3 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls8 foulsWolverhampton 10 fouls, Nottingham Forest 8 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Santiago Bueno · Wolverhampton · 85′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedNicolás Domínguez · Nottingham Forest · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRodrigo Gomes · Wolverhampton · 14′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSantiago Bueno · Wolverhampton · 31′ · 0.03 xG · on targetHwang Hee-chan · Wolverhampton · 25′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMurillo · Nottingham Forest · 60′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 83′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Guedes · Wolverhampton · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 26′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedGonçalo Guedes · Wolverhampton · 54′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolverhampton · 83′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedTaiwo Awoniyi · Nottingham Forest · 88′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNikola Milenković · Nottingham Forest · 47′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedElliot Anderson · Nottingham Forest · 61′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 10′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedSantiago Bueno · Wolverhampton · 15′ · 0.10 xG · on targetJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 67′ · 0.10 xG · on targetHwang Hee-chan · Wolverhampton · 14′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 7′ · 0.16 xG · goalJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 29′ · 0.26 xG · on targetChris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 44′ · 0.26 xG · goalCallum Hudson Odoi · Nottingham Forest · 72′ · 0.29 xG · off target or blockedJørgen Strand Larsen · Wolverhampton · 14′ · 0.64 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Wolverhampton: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.55 xG. Nottingham Forest: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.17 xG. · 1 unplaced

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Morgan Gibbs-White · Nottingham Forest · 7′Chris Wood · Nottingham Forest · 44′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Wolverhampton 1.55 xG · Nottingham Forest 1.17 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Wolverhampton
4Draws
0Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League2–2
Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–1
Nottingham Forest — Wolverhampton · Premier League1–1
Wolverhampton — Nottingham Forest · Premier League1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Wolverhampton favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Nottingham Forest in 9 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Wolverhampton20 matchesNottingham Forest20 matches
1.55 goals/match ▲Goals scored20/201.45 goals/match
2.25 goals/matchGoals allowed20/20▲ 0.95 goals/match
1.06 xG/matchExpected goals20/20▲ 1.29 xG/match
10.8 shots/matchShots20/20▲ 12.9 shots/match
4.25 shots/matchShots on target20/20▲ 4.65 shots/match
47.8% ●Possession20/2039.6%
3.3 corners/matchCorners20/20● 4.5 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls20/2011.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples20 / 20home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Tue, 7 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsWolverhamptonNottingham Forest
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headWolverhampton — Nottingham Forest
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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