PitchMath
Premier League · 2024Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTCFull timeFull-time recap
0–1Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricBrentfordAston Villa
Shots13 shots/match▲12 shots/match
Shots on target3 shots/match4 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.83 xG/match1.32 xG/match▲
Possession60%●40%
Corners6 corners/match●5 corners/match
Fouls10 fouls/match5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Collins · Brentford · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 42′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.07 xG · goalMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 46′ · 0.17 xG · on targetTyrone Mings · Aston Villa · 16′ · 0.34 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 87′ · 0.34 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.83 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 0.83 xG · Aston Villa 1.36 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: The fixture is outside the configured active season.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.93 shots/match▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.93 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match▲ShotsBrentford · Aston Villa12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordAston VillaBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against17.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Brentford
2Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–3
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Brentford favored in 4 of 13 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 6 · 3 too close

1.71 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 28/291.41 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 28/291.55 goals/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 28/291.47 xG/match
1.54 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 28/29▲1.38 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShotsseason · 28/29▲12.6 shots/match
17.3 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 28/29▲12.1 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 28/294.17 shots/match
5.71 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 28/29▲4.28 shots/match
48.4%Possessionseason · 28/29●51.5%
4.54 corners/matchCornersseason · 28/29●6.45 corners/match
6.61 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 28/29▲4.38 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
7.86 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 28/2911.4 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
18%▲Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 28/2914%
75%Scoring frequencyseason · 28/29▲79%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Brentford42.5
Aston Villa57.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Brentford55.8
Aston Villa35.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Brentford15.8
Aston Villa50.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Brentford22.5
Aston Villa27.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Brentford7.5
Aston Villa47.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Brentford37.5
Aston Villa82.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Brentford35
Aston Villa48.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Brentford28 matchesAston Villa29 matches
1.71 goals/match▲Goals scored28/291.41 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed28/291.55 goals/match
1.59 xG/match▲Expected goals28/291.47 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots28/29▲12.6 shots/match
4.89 shots/match▲Shots on target28/294.17 shots/match
48.4%Possession28/29●51.5%
4.54 corners/matchCorners28/29●6.45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
7.86 fouls/matchFouls28/2911.4 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Brentford15 matchesAston Villa14 matches
2 goals/match▲Goals scored15/141.14 goals/match
1.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed15/141.93 goals/match
1.81 xG/match▲Expected goals15/141.13 xG/match
13.1 shots/match▲Shots15/149.93 shots/match
5.47 shots/match▲Shots on target15/143 shots/match
51.3%●Possession15/1447.1%
5.13 corners/match●Corners15/145.07 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
6.93 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.6 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

9.92 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/110.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidencelimited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsBrentfordAston Villa
CompetitionPremier League
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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