PitchMath
Premier League · 2024

Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa · Premier League

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Aston Villa won 0–1.

Shots
1312
Shots on target
34
Expected goals
0.831.32
Possession
60%40%

Full time

What the match recorded

Aston Villa beat Brentford 1–0. Recorded in this match (Brentford – Aston Villa): shots 13–12, shots on target 3–4, expected goals 0.83–1.32, possession 60%–40%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Brentford's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Brentford's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.71 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.71 goals/match1.54 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Aston Villa have a visible away split

moderate

Aston Villa's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.93 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.93 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Aston Villa show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Aston Villa's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.6 shots/match ▲ShotsBrentford · Aston Villa12.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBrentfordAston VillaBaseline
Shots11.6 shots/match12.6 shots/match13.1 shots/match
Shots against17.3 shots/match12.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots12 shotsBrentford 13 shots, Aston Villa 12 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots4 shotsBrentford 3 shots, Aston Villa 4 shots
  • Expected goals0.83 xG1.32 xGBrentford 0.83 xG, Aston Villa 1.32 xG
  • Possession60%40%Brentford 60%, Aston Villa 40%
  • Corners6 corners5 cornersBrentford 6 corners, Aston Villa 5 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls5 foulsBrentford 10 fouls, Aston Villa 5 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Keane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 30′ · 0.02 xG · on targetYoane Wissa · Brentford · 54′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKeane Lewis-Potter · Brentford · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNathan Collins · Brentford · 84′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 7′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 10′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 12′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBryan Mbeumo · Brentford · 71′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKevin Schade · Brentford · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJacob Ramsey · Aston Villa · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 80′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLeon Bailey · Aston Villa · 42′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 49′ · 0.07 xG · goalMorgan Rogers · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Ajer · Brentford · 83′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedYouri Tielemans · Aston Villa · 33′ · 0.09 xG · on targetKevin Schade · Brentford · 70′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 6′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 82′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedChristian Nørgaard · Brentford · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedYoane Wissa · Brentford · 46′ · 0.17 xG · on targetTyrone Mings · Aston Villa · 16′ · 0.34 xG · on targetOllie Watkins · Aston Villa · 87′ · 0.34 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Brentford: 13 shots, 3 on target, 0.83 xG. Aston Villa: 12 shots, 4 on target, 1.36 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa · 49′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Brentford 0.83 xG · Aston Villa 1.36 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0Brentford
2Draws
3Aston Villa
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League3–3
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–2
Brentford — Aston Villa · Premier League1–1
Aston Villa — Brentford · Premier League4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Brentford favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Aston Villa in 6 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Brentford28 matchesAston Villa29 matches
1.71 goals/match ▲Goals scored28/291.41 goals/match
1.57 goals/matchGoals allowed28/291.55 goals/match
1.59 xG/match ▲Expected goals28/291.47 xG/match
11.6 shots/matchShots28/29▲ 12.6 shots/match
4.89 shots/match ▲Shots on target28/294.17 shots/match
48.4%Possession28/29● 51.5%
4.54 corners/matchCorners28/29● 6.45 corners/match
7.86 fouls/matchFouls28/2911.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples28 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Mar 2025, 21:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Premier League

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBrentfordAston Villa
CompetitionPremier LeaguePremier League 2024/25
Head-to-headBrentford — Aston Villa
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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