Saudi Pro League · 2026

Al-Qadsiah vs Abha · Saudi Pro League

vsPre-match analysis

Abha

DLLLD

Season

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Goals scored
2.290.71
Expected goals
2.190.8
Shots
149.86
Possession
56.7%47.1%

30-second read

What the record shows

One pattern stands out in the record: abha's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines. The next-strongest reading is weaker: al-Qadsiah have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Abha show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Abha's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsAl-Qadsiah · Abha9.86 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAl-QadsiahAbhaBaseline
Shots14 shots/match9.86 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against8.86 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Al-Qadsiah have a visible home split

weak

Al-Qadsiah's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

16.8 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots16.8 shots/match14 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Al-Qadsiah's recent record differs from the season

weak

Al-Qadsiah's last-five shots average is below their season average.

11.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season14 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots11.4 shots/match14 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Al-Qadsiah favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Abha in 0 · 1 too close

recorded edge higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Al-Qadsiah7 matchesAbha7 matches
2.29 goals/match ▲Goals scored7/70.71 goals/match
1.14 goals/match ▲Goals allowed7/71.86 goals/match
2.19 xG/match ▲Expected goals7/70.8 xG/match
14 shots/match ▲Shots7/79.86 shots/match
5.86 shots/match ▲Shots on target7/73.29 shots/match
56.7% ●Possession7/747.1%
6.29 corners/match ●Corners7/72.86 corners/match
12.9 fouls/matchFouls7/710.9 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples7 / 7home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
Freshness35 daysstale at cutoff
  • At least one team lacks a recent completed match near this fixture cutoff.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The nearest completed-match evidence is stale relative to this fixture cutoff.
Analysis cutoff: Fri, 16 Oct 2026, 13:15 UTC · analysis-v4

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