PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2026

AFC Ajax 1–3 PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

1–3Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

PSV Eindhoven won 1–3.

Shots
1913
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
22.55
Possession
53%47%

Full time

What the match recorded

PSV Eindhoven beat AFC Ajax 3–1. Recorded in this match (AFC Ajax – PSV Eindhoven): shots 19–13, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 2–2.55, possession 53%–47%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20 shots/match ▲ShotsAFC Ajax · PSV Eindhoven21.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricAFC AjaxPSV EindhovenBaseline
Shots20 shots/match21.6 shots/match13.4 shots/match
Shots against11.3 shots/match8 shots/match15.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots13 shotsAFC Ajax 19 shots, PSV Eindhoven 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsAFC Ajax 6 shots, PSV Eindhoven 5 shots
  • Expected goals2 xG2.55 xGAFC Ajax 2 xG, PSV Eindhoven 2.55 xG
  • Possession53%47%AFC Ajax 53%, PSV Eindhoven 47%
  • Corners1 corner1 cornerAFC Ajax 1 corner, PSV Eindhoven 1 corner
  • Fouls6 fouls13 foulsAFC Ajax 6 fouls, PSV Eindhoven 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards3 cards6 cardsAFC Ajax 3 cards, PSV Eindhoven 6 cards
  • Passes513 passes444 passesAFC Ajax 513 passes, PSV Eindhoven 444 passes
  • Pass accuracy83.2%86%AFC Ajax 83.2%, PSV Eindhoven 86%
  • Shots inside box12 shots11 shotsAFC Ajax 12 shots, PSV Eindhoven 11 shots
  • Blocked shots6 blocks2 blocksAFC Ajax 6 blocks, PSV Eindhoven 2 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves5 savesAFC Ajax 2 saves, PSV Eindhoven 5 saves
  • Offsides1 offside1 offsideAFC Ajax 1 offside, PSV Eindhoven 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 5′Ricardo PepiGoal · PSV Eindhoven
  2. 16′Kodai SanoYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  3. 23′Tolu ArokodareGoal · AFC Ajax
  4. 37′Noah FernandezYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  5. 45′Lutsharel GeertruidaGoal · PSV Eindhoven
  6. Half-time
  7. 74′Filip KostićYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  8. 80′Davy KlaassenYellow card · AFC Ajax
  9. 81′Ivan PerišićYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  10. 81′Ruben van BommelYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  11. 81′Youri BaasYellow card · AFC Ajax
  12. 84′Lutsharel GeertruidaYellow card · PSV Eindhoven
  13. 90′Esmir BajraktarevićGoal · PSV Eindhoven
  14. 90′Anton GaaeiYellow card · AFC Ajax
  15. Full time
Player changes · 12grouped by team and minute
  • 46′PSV Eindhoven · 1 player changePaul Wanner
  • 54′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesSofyan Amrabat · Marcos Leonardo
  • 61′AFC Ajax · 2 player changesViktor Tsygankov · Kasper Dolberg
  • 63′PSV Eindhoven · 2 player changesSven Mijnans · Esmir Bajraktarević
  • 73′PSV Eindhoven · 2 player changesFilip Kostić · Ryan Flamingo
  • 73′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeAbdellah Ouazane
  • 85′AFC Ajax · 1 player changeThilo Kehrer
  • 88′PSV Eindhoven · 1 player changeYarek Gasiorowski

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

AFC Ajax
  1. Marc-André Ter StegenG
  2. Anton GaaeiD
  3. Caio HenriqueD
  4. Youri BaasD
  5. Aaron BouwmanD
  6. Julian BrandtM
  7. Davy KlaassenM
  8. Jorthy MokioM
  9. Oscar GloukhF
  10. Steven BerghuisF
  11. Tolu ArokodareF
PSV Eindhoven
  1. Matěj KovářG
  2. Lutsharel GeertruidaD
  3. Armando ObispoD
  4. Sergiño DestD
  5. Mauro JúniorD
  6. Guus TilM
  7. Kodai SanoM
  8. Noah FernandezM
  9. Ivan PerišićF
  10. Ruben van BommelF
  11. Ricardo PepiF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2AFC Ajax
3Draws
0PSV Eindhoven
AFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie2–2
PSV Eindhoven — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
PSV Eindhoven — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie0–2
AFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie3–2
AFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: AFC Ajax favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

AFC Ajax4 matchesPSV Eindhoven5 matches
2.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/5▲ 3.6 goals/match
1.25 goals/matchGoals allowed4/51.2 goals/match
2.03 xG/matchExpected goals4/5▲ 3.06 xG/match
20 shots/matchShots4/5▲ 21.6 shots/match
6.25 shots/matchShots on target4/5▲ 9 shots/match
58.5%Possession4/5● 62%
5.5 corners/matchCorners4/5● 7.8 corners/match
9.25 fouls/matchFouls4/58.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsAFC AjaxPSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisie
Head-to-headAFC Ajax — PSV Eindhoven
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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