PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Burnley 1–1 Middlesbrough · Championship

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1.

Shots
1110
Shots on target
32
Expected goals
0.641.22
Possession
42%58%

Full time

What the match recorded

Burnley and Middlesbrough drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Burnley – Middlesbrough): shots 11–10, shots on target 3–2, expected goals 0.64–1.22, possession 42%–58%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Middlesbrough have recorded the higher season possession share.

50%PossessionBurnley · Middlesbrough● 63%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyMiddlesbroughBaseline
Possession50%63%50.6%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Burnley show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Burnley's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsBurnley · Middlesbrough17.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricBurnleyMiddlesbroughBaseline
Shots14 shots/match17.3 shots/match13.6 shots/match
Shots against13 shots/match9.75 shots/match13.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots11 shots10 shotsBurnley 11 shots, Middlesbrough 10 shots
  • Shots on target3 shots2 shotsBurnley 3 shots, Middlesbrough 2 shots
  • Expected goals0.64 xG1.22 xGBurnley 0.64 xG, Middlesbrough 1.22 xG
  • Possession42%58%Burnley 42%, Middlesbrough 58%
  • Corners5 corners1 cornerBurnley 5 corners, Middlesbrough 1 corner
  • Fouls11 fouls8 foulsBurnley 11 fouls, Middlesbrough 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsBurnley 2 cards, Middlesbrough 2 cards
  • Passes384 passes540 passesBurnley 384 passes, Middlesbrough 540 passes
  • Pass accuracy76.8%86.1%Burnley 76.8%, Middlesbrough 86.1%
  • Shots inside box6 shots4 shotsBurnley 6 shots, Middlesbrough 4 shots
  • Blocked shots4 blocks3 blocksBurnley 4 blocks, Middlesbrough 3 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves1 save2 savesBurnley 1 save, Middlesbrough 2 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides6 offsidesBurnley 2 offsides, Middlesbrough 6 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 23′Aidan MorrisGoal · Middlesbrough
  2. 28′Hannibal MejbriYellow card · Burnley
  3. 39′Will LankshearYellow card · Middlesbrough
  4. Half-time
  5. 54′Ugo RaghouberGoal · Burnley
  6. 71′Alfie JonesYellow card · Middlesbrough
  7. 90′Ugo RaghouberYellow card · Burnley
  8. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Burnley · 2 player changesLargie Ramazani · Max Alleyne
  • 61′Middlesbrough · 2 player changesTommy Conway · Leo Castledine
  • 71′Burnley · 1 player changeAaron Ramsey
  • 74′Middlesbrough · 1 player changeAshley Phillips
  • 77′Burnley · 1 player changeArmando Broja
  • 81′Burnley · 1 player changeMike Trésor
  • 87′Middlesbrough · 1 player changeDavid Strelec

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Burnley4-2-3-1
  1. Max WeissG
  2. Kyle WalkerD
  3. Max AlleyneD
  4. Connor RobertsD
  5. Anel AhmedhodžićD
  6. Marcus EdwardsM
  7. Aaron RamseyM
  8. Hannibal MejbriM
  9. Jacob Bruun LarsenF
  10. Dastan SatpaevF
  11. Andreas HountondjiF
Middlesbrough4-2-3-1
  1. Radek VitekG
  2. Callum BrittainD
  3. Luke AylingD
  4. Adilson MalandaD
  5. Neto BorgesD
  6. Riley McGreeM
  7. Aidan MorrisM
  8. Myles Peart-HarrisM
  9. Will LankshearF
  10. Morgan WhittakerF
  11. Maximilian ArfstenF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Burnley
2Draws
0Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough — Burnley · Championship0–0
Burnley — Middlesbrough · Championship1–1
Middlesbrough — Burnley · Championship1–2
Burnley — Middlesbrough · Championship3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Burnley favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Middlesbrough in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Burnley4 matchesMiddlesbrough4 matches
1.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲ 1.75 goals/match
2.5 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲ 1.25 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲ 1.81 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots4/4▲ 17.3 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲ 4.5 shots/match
50%Possession4/4● 63%
5 corners/matchCorners4/4● 5.75 corners/match
10.3 fouls/matchFouls4/411.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples4 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples4 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 2 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsBurnleyMiddlesbrough
CompetitionChampionship
Head-to-headBurnley — Middlesbrough
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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