PitchMath
Championship · 2026

Millwall 4–0 Bolton Wanderers · Championship

4–0Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Millwall won 4–0.

Shots
1213
Shots on target
54
Expected goals
2.650.95
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Millwall beat Bolton Wanderers 4–0. Recorded in this match (Millwall – Bolton Wanderers): shots 12–13, shots on target 5–4, expected goals 2.65–0.95, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Millwall, Bolton Wanderers.

2.8 days ▲Rest daysMillwall · Bolton Wanderers3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricMillwallBolton WanderersBaseline
Rest days2.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days2 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Bolton Wanderers have a visible away split

weak

Bolton Wanderers's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

11 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season13.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots11 shots/match13.8 shots/match13.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots12 shots13 shotsMillwall 12 shots, Bolton Wanderers 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots4 shotsMillwall 5 shots, Bolton Wanderers 4 shots
  • Expected goals2.65 xG0.95 xGMillwall 2.65 xG, Bolton Wanderers 0.95 xG
  • Possession39%61%Millwall 39%, Bolton Wanderers 61%
  • Corners3 corners9 cornersMillwall 3 corners, Bolton Wanderers 9 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls14 foulsMillwall 13 fouls, Bolton Wanderers 14 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardMillwall 0 cards, Bolton Wanderers 1 card
  • Passes265 passes412 passesMillwall 265 passes, Bolton Wanderers 412 passes
  • Pass accuracy70.2%81.1%Millwall 70.2%, Bolton Wanderers 81.1%
  • Shots inside box11 shots11 shotsMillwall 11 shots, Bolton Wanderers 11 shots
  • Blocked shots3 blocks4 blocksMillwall 3 blocks, Bolton Wanderers 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves1 saveMillwall 4 saves, Bolton Wanderers 1 save
  • Offsides8 offsides0 offsidesMillwall 8 offsides, Bolton Wanderers 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 38′Caleb TaylorGoal · Millwall
  2. Half-time
  3. 75′Akin FamewoYellow card · Bolton Wanderers
  4. 83′Lyndon DykesGoal · Millwall
  5. 86′Jenson MetcalfeRed card · Millwall
  6. 86′Josh SheehanRed card · Bolton Wanderers
  7. 88′Lyndon DykesGoal · Millwall
  8. 90′Camiel NeghliGoal · Millwall
  9. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeRúben Rodrigues
  • 55′Millwall · 1 player changeDaniel Kelly
  • 60′Bolton Wanderers · 2 player changesTheo Bair · Kyliane Dong
  • 65′Millwall · 2 player changesZak Lovelace · Yanis Issoufou
  • 75′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeMax Conway
  • 76′Bolton Wanderers · 1 player changeRyan Hardie
  • 81′Millwall · 1 player changeElkan Baggott

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Millwall3-1-4-2
  1. Max CrocombeG
  2. Zak SturgeD
  3. Jake CooperD
  4. Caleb TaylorD
  5. Elkan BaggottD
  6. Mark SykesD
  7. Jenson MetcalfeM
  8. Daniel KellyM
  9. Derek Mazou-SackoM
  10. Camiel NeghliF
  11. Lyndon DykesF
Bolton Wanderers4-2-3-1
  1. Jack BonhamG
  2. Chris ForinoD
  3. Lewis BruntD
  4. Ben DaviesD
  5. Akin FamewoD
  6. Xavier SimonsM
  7. Josh SheehanM
  8. Rúben RodriguesM
  9. Sam DalbyF
  10. Thierry GaleF
  11. Samuel Iling JuniorF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Millwall favored in 9 of 13 directional metrics · Bolton Wanderers in 2 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Millwall5 matchesBolton Wanderers5 matches
2 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/50.8 goals/match
1.6 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/51.8 goals/match
1.92 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.09 xG/match
14.6 shots/match ▲Shots5/513.8 shots/match
4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 4.4 shots/match
48.8%Possession5/5● 55.4%
5.8 corners/matchCorners5/5● 7 corners/match
12 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsMillwallBolton Wanderers
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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