PitchMath
La Liga · 2026

Real Madrid 4–1 Rayo Vallecano · La Liga

4–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Real Madrid won 4–1.

Shots
2418
Shots on target
117
Expected goals
2.71.13
Possession
56%44%

Full time

What the match recorded

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1. Recorded in this match (Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano): shots 24–18, shots on target 11–7, expected goals 2.7–1.13, possession 56%–44%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Real Madrid show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Real Madrid's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

20.8 shots/match ▲ShotsReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano11.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Shots20.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match11.8 shots/match
Shots against12 shots/match17.4 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Both teams have elevated corners records

moderate

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

8.4 corners/match ●CornersReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano6 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Corners8.4 corners/match6 corners/match5.1 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Real Madrid have recorded the higher season possession share.

57% ●PossessionReal Madrid · Rayo Vallecano44.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 12.4 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricReal MadridRayo VallecanoBaseline
Possession57%44.6%49.1%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots24 shots18 shotsReal Madrid 24 shots, Rayo Vallecano 18 shots
  • Shots on target11 shots7 shotsReal Madrid 11 shots, Rayo Vallecano 7 shots
  • Expected goals2.7 xG1.13 xGReal Madrid 2.7 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.13 xG
  • Possession56%44%Real Madrid 56%, Rayo Vallecano 44%
  • Corners11 corners5 cornersReal Madrid 11 corners, Rayo Vallecano 5 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls13 foulsReal Madrid 9 fouls, Rayo Vallecano 13 fouls
  • Yellow cards0 cards1 cardReal Madrid 0 cards, Rayo Vallecano 1 card
  • Passes542 passes415 passesReal Madrid 542 passes, Rayo Vallecano 415 passes
  • Pass accuracy90.8%86.3%Real Madrid 90.8%, Rayo Vallecano 86.3%
  • Shots inside box16 shots8 shotsReal Madrid 16 shots, Rayo Vallecano 8 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks5 blocksReal Madrid 5 blocks, Rayo Vallecano 5 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves6 saves7 savesReal Madrid 6 saves, Rayo Vallecano 7 saves
  • Offsides1 offside0 offsidesReal Madrid 1 offside, Rayo Vallecano 0 offsides

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 14′Kylian MbappéPenalty goal · Real Madrid
  2. 17′Álvaro CarrerasGoal · Real Madrid
  3. 35′Jude BellinghamGoal · Real Madrid
  4. Half-time
  5. 51′Sergio CamelloGoal · Rayo Vallecano
  6. 76′Pathé Ismaël CissYellow card · Rayo Vallecano
  7. 90′Kylian MbappéGoal · Real Madrid
  8. Full time
Player changes · 9grouped by team and minute
  • 46′Real Madrid · 1 player changeEduardo Camavinga
  • 67′Rayo Vallecano · 2 player changesÓscar Valentín · Rayane Belaid
  • 69′Real Madrid · 1 player changeAurélien Tchouaméni
  • 72′Real Madrid · 1 player changeArda Güler
  • 75′Rayo Vallecano · 2 player changesAlemão · Mujaid Sadick
  • 86′Rayo Vallecano · 1 player changeIván Balliu
  • 89′Real Madrid · 1 player changeMarc Cucurella

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Real Madrid4-2-3-1
  1. Thibaut CourtoisG
  2. Dean HuijsenD
  3. Trent Alexander-ArnoldD
  4. Álvaro CarrerasD
  5. Antonio RüdigerD
  6. Jude BellinghamM
  7. Eduardo CamavingaM
  8. Bernardo SilvaM
  9. Vinícius JúniorF
  10. Kylian MbappéF
  11. Arda GülerF
Rayo Vallecano4-3-3
  1. Emil AuderoG
  2. Andrei RațiuD
  3. Pathé Ismaël CissD
  4. Adrià PedrosaD
  5. Florian LejeuneD
  6. Unai LópezM
  7. Óscar ValentínM
  8. Gnangoro BouaréM
  9. Pedro DíazF
  10. Sergio CamelloF
  11. Álvaro GarcíaF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Real Madrid
3Draws
0Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga0–0
Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano · La Liga2–1
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga3–3
Rayo Vallecano — Real Madrid · La Liga1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Real Madrid favored in 12 of 13 directional metrics · Rayo Vallecano in 1

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Real Madrid5 matchesRayo Vallecano5 matches
2.8 goals/match ▲Goals scored5/51.6 goals/match
0.8 goals/match ▲Goals allowed5/52.8 goals/match
2.86 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.23 xG/match
20.8 shots/match ▲Shots5/511.8 shots/match
9.2 shots/match ▲Shots on target5/55.6 shots/match
57% ●Possession5/544.6%
8.4 corners/match ●Corners5/56 corners/match
9 fouls/matchFouls5/514.2 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in La Liga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsReal MadridRayo Vallecano
CompetitionLa Liga
Head-to-headReal Madrid — Rayo Vallecano
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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