PitchMath
Bundesliga · 2026

TSG Hoffenheim 2–1 VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga

2–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

TSG Hoffenheim won 2–1.

Shots
2016
Shots on target
85
Expected goals
2.62.23
Possession
43%57%

Full time

What the match recorded

TSG Hoffenheim beat VfB Stuttgart 2–1. Recorded in this match (TSG Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart): shots 20–16, shots on target 8–5, expected goals 2.6–2.23, possession 43%–57%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Both teams have elevated corners records

weak

Each team's season corners average is above the competition baseline.

7.33 corners/match ●CornersTSG Hoffenheim · VfB Stuttgart6.67 corners/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Corners7.33 corners/match6.67 corners/match5.5 corners/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

TSG Hoffenheim show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

TSG Hoffenheim's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

17.7 shots/match ▲ShotsTSG Hoffenheim · VfB Stuttgart16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricTSG HoffenheimVfB StuttgartBaseline
Shots17.7 shots/match16.3 shots/match15.7 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match19.7 shots/match17.2 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots20 shots16 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 20 shots, VfB Stuttgart 16 shots
  • Shots on target8 shots5 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 8 shots, VfB Stuttgart 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.6 xG2.23 xGTSG Hoffenheim 2.6 xG, VfB Stuttgart 2.23 xG
  • Possession43%57%TSG Hoffenheim 43%, VfB Stuttgart 57%
  • Corners5 corners7 cornersTSG Hoffenheim 5 corners, VfB Stuttgart 7 corners
  • Fouls15 fouls8 foulsTSG Hoffenheim 15 fouls, VfB Stuttgart 8 fouls
  • Yellow cards1 card0 cardsTSG Hoffenheim 1 card, VfB Stuttgart 0 cards
  • Passes379 passes512 passesTSG Hoffenheim 379 passes, VfB Stuttgart 512 passes
  • Pass accuracy72.8%77.5%TSG Hoffenheim 72.8%, VfB Stuttgart 77.5%
  • Shots inside box12 shots13 shotsTSG Hoffenheim 12 shots, VfB Stuttgart 13 shots
  • Blocked shots5 blocks4 blocksTSG Hoffenheim 5 blocks, VfB Stuttgart 4 blocks
  • Goalkeeper saves4 saves6 savesTSG Hoffenheim 4 saves, VfB Stuttgart 6 saves
  • Offsides2 offsides1 offsideTSG Hoffenheim 2 offsides, VfB Stuttgart 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 13′Adam HložekGoal · TSG Hoffenheim
  2. Half-time
  3. 48′Maximilian MittelstädtGoal · VfB Stuttgart
  4. 63′Wouter BurgerYellow card · TSG Hoffenheim
  5. 67′Adam HložekGoal · TSG Hoffenheim
  6. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 35′VfB Stuttgart · 1 player changeYanik Spalt
  • 55′TSG Hoffenheim · 1 player changePatrick Wimmer
  • 65′VfB Stuttgart · 2 player changesDeniz Undav · Bilal El Khannouss
  • 69′TSG Hoffenheim · 2 player changesKoki Machida · Valentin Gendrey
  • 81′VfB Stuttgart · 2 player changesLeo Sauer · Jamie Leweling
  • 82′TSG Hoffenheim · 1 player changeAndrej Kramarić
  • 83′TSG Hoffenheim · 1 player changeFisnik Asllani

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

TSG Hoffenheim4-4-2
  1. Oliver BaumannG
  2. Ozan KabakD
  3. Albian HajdariD
  4. Vladimír CoufalD
  5. Mats RotsD
  6. Leon AvdullahuM
  7. Patrick WimmerM
  8. Adam DaghimM
  9. Wouter BurgerM
  10. Adam HložekF
  11. Tim LemperleF
VfB Stuttgart4-2-3-1
  1. Fabian BredlowG
  2. Josha VagnomanD
  3. Maximilian MittelstädtD
  4. Jeff ChabotD
  5. Finn JeltschD
  6. Angelo StillerM
  7. Bilal El KhannoussM
  8. Grischa PrömelM
  9. Ermedin DemirovićF
  10. Chris FührichF
  11. Jamie LewelingF

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0TSG Hoffenheim
4Draws
1VfB Stuttgart
TSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga3–3
VfB Stuttgart — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga0–0
TSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga1–1
VfB Stuttgart — TSG Hoffenheim · Bundesliga1–1
TSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart · Bundesliga0–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: TSG Hoffenheim favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · VfB Stuttgart in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

TSG Hoffenheim3 matchesVfB Stuttgart3 matches
2 goals/matchGoals scored3/32 goals/match
2.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/32.67 goals/match
1.84 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 2.04 xG/match
17.7 shots/match ▲Shots3/316.3 shots/match
6 shots/match ▲Shots on target3/35.67 shots/match
54% ●Possession3/352%
7.33 corners/match ●Corners3/36.67 corners/match
14 fouls/matchFouls3/310 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 12 Sept 2026, 17:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Bundesliga

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsTSG HoffenheimVfB Stuttgart
CompetitionBundesliga
Head-to-headTSG Hoffenheim — VfB Stuttgart
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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