PitchMath
Ligue 1 · 2026

Nice 1–1 Le Mans · Ligue 1

1–1Full-time analysis

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

Match at a glance

Nice and Le Mans drew 1–1.

Shots
88
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
1.051.27
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Nice and Le Mans drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Nice – Le Mans): shots 8–8, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 1.05–1.27, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Le Mans show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Le Mans's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

12.3 shots/match ▲ShotsNice · Le Mans9.33 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNiceLe MansBaseline
Shots12.3 shots/match9.33 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against11 shots/match18.7 shots/match14.8 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

weak

Nice have recorded the higher season possession share.

57.7% ●PossessionNice · Le Mans42.7%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 15.0 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricNiceLe MansBaseline
Possession57.7%42.7%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots8 shots8 shotsNice 8 shots, Le Mans 8 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsNice 2 shots, Le Mans 3 shots
  • Expected goals1.05 xG1.27 xGNice 1.05 xG, Le Mans 1.27 xG
  • Possession58%42%Nice 58%, Le Mans 42%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersNice 5 corners, Le Mans 2 corners
  • Fouls4 fouls11 foulsNice 4 fouls, Le Mans 11 fouls
  • Yellow cards2 cards2 cardsNice 2 cards, Le Mans 2 cards
  • Passes540 passes389 passesNice 540 passes, Le Mans 389 passes
  • Pass accuracy87%81%Nice 87%, Le Mans 81%
  • Shots inside box5 shots2 shotsNice 5 shots, Le Mans 2 shots
  • Blocked shots2 blocks1 blockNice 2 blocks, Le Mans 1 block
  • Goalkeeper saves2 saves1 saveNice 2 saves, Le Mans 1 save
  • Offsides3 offsides1 offsideNice 3 offsides, Le Mans 1 offside

As it happened

Key moments

  1. 13′Adil BourabaaGoal · Le Mans
  2. 44′Elye WahiGoal · Nice
  3. Half-time
  4. 58′Alexandre LaurayYellow card · Le Mans
  5. 75′Youssouf NdayishimiyeYellow card · Nice
  6. 82′Noa BoisséYellow card · Le Mans
  7. 84′Elye WahiYellow card · Nice
  8. Full time
Player changes · 10grouped by team and minute
  • 61′Le Mans · 3 player changesSamuel Yohou · Habibou Diallo · Antoine Rabillard
  • 65′Nice · 2 player changesMohamed Amoura · Gauthier Hein
  • 70′Le Mans · 1 player changeBillal Brahimi
  • 73′Nice · 2 player changesAli Abdi · Antoine Mendy
  • 78′Le Mans · 1 player changeYasser Larouci
  • 85′Nice · 1 player changeAboulaye Camara

Who started

Lineups

Show both lineups

Confirmed lineups as published before kick-off.

Nice3-4-2-1
  1. Yehvann DioufG
  2. Mohamed AbdelmonemD
  3. Niels NkounkouD
  4. Xavier MandzaD
  5. Youssouf NdayishimiyeD
  6. Jonathan ClaussD
  7. Axel WitselM
  8. Djibril CoulibalyM
  9. Gauthier HeinF
  10. Sofiane DiopF
  11. Elye WahiF
Le Mans3-5-2
  1. Ewan HatfoutG
  2. Harold VoyerD
  3. Noa BoisséD
  4. Lucas BuadesD
  5. Lucas CalodatD
  6. Rayan BambaD
  7. Alexandre LaurayM
  8. Adil BourabaaM
  9. Lucas BretelleM
  10. Louis MafoutaF
  11. Dame GueyeF

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Nice favored in 0 of 13 directional metrics · Le Mans in 0 · 13 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Nice3 matchesLe Mans3 matches
0.33 goals/matchGoals scored3/3▲ 1.67 goals/match
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals allowed3/32 goals/match
0.93 xG/matchExpected goals3/3▲ 1.65 xG/match
12.3 shots/match ▲Shots3/39.33 shots/match
2.33 shots/matchShots on target3/3▲ 4.33 shots/match
57.7% ●Possession3/342.7%
6 corners/match ●Corners3/33 corners/match
8.67 fouls/matchFouls3/313.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidenceLimited evidence — limited
Season samples3 / 3home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 3last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 5 Sept 2026, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Ligue 1

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNiceLe Mans
CompetitionLigue 1
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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