Eliteserien · 2026Sat, 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTCFull timeSparebanken Sor ArenaFull-time recap

Start

LWLLL

0–1Full-time recap

Fredrikstad

WDWLL

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Start	Fredrikstad
Shots	13 shots/match	14 shots/match▲
Shots on target	2 shots/match	4 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.77 xG/match▲	1.53 xG/match
Possession	49%	51%
Corners	6 corners/match	4 corners/match
Fouls	8 fouls/match	5 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Start: 13 shots, 2 on target, 1.79 xG. Fredrikstad: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.59 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Start 1.79 xG · Fredrikstad 1.59 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Fredrikstad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Fredrikstad's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fredrikstad's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.14 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	0.8 goals/match	1.14 goals/match	1.41 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

0Start

0Draws

1Fredrikstad

29 May 2026Fredrikstad — Start · Eliteserien2–1

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Start favored in 1 of 14 directional metrics · Fredrikstad in 4 · 9 too close

0.93 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 15/14▲1.14 goals/match

2.27 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 15/14▲1.64 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 15/14▲1.17 xG/match

1.54 xG/match▲Expected goals allowedseason · 15/141.63 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 15/1411.4 shots/match

13.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 15/1413.5 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 15/143.5 shots/match

5 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 15/144.86 shots/match

40.8%Possessionseason · 15/1448.6%

3.47 corners/matchCornersseason · 15/144.21 corners/match

5.2 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 15/145.36 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 1/1—

12.3 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 15/1411.1 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

7%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 15/14▲7%

73%Scoring frequencyseason · 15/1471%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Start3.1

Fredrikstad40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Start13.5

Fredrikstad19.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Start18.7

Fredrikstad36.4

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Start78.1

Fredrikstad40.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Start71.9

Fredrikstad31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 53%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Start3.1

Fredrikstad21.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Start26.6

Fredrikstad19.5

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/50.8 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match

1.07 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.2 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match

2.8 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲3.2 shots/match

39.8%Possession5/553.2%

4 corners/matchCorners5/53.8 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

10.4 fouls/matchFouls5/510.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1 goals/match▲Goals scored10/100.9 goals/match

2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.5 goals/match

1.08 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.24 xG/match

12.6 shots/match▲Shots10/1011.4 shots/match

3.3 shots/matchShots on target10/103.3 shots/match

39%Possession10/1048.6%

3 corners/matchCorners10/104 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

10.7 fouls/matchFouls10/1011.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

15 / 14 matches

0.93 goals/matchGoals scored15/14▲1.14 goals/match

2.27 goals/matchGoals allowed15/14▲1.64 goals/match

1.09 xG/matchExpected goals15/14▲1.17 xG/match

11.7 shots/matchShots15/1411.4 shots/match

3.4 shots/matchShots on target15/143.5 shots/match

40.8%Possession15/1448.6%

3.47 corners/matchCorners15/144.21 corners/match

—Cards1/1—

12.3 fouls/matchFouls15/1411.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

7 / 8 matches

0.86 goals/matchGoals scored7/80.88 goals/match

1.57 goals/match▲Goals allowed7/81.88 goals/match

1.34 xG/match▲Expected goals7/81.13 xG/match

13 shots/match▲Shots7/89.75 shots/match

3.14 shots/matchShots on target7/83.25 shots/match

43.1%Possession7/848.3%

4.71 corners/matchCorners7/83.63 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.4 fouls/matchFouls7/811.5 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

21.1 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/122 days

0 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/10 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples15 / 14home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 8 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4