PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 2–1 Heracles · Eredivisie

2–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NAC Breda won 2–1.

Shots
1713
Shots on target
45
Expected goals
2.280.9
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

NAC Breda beat Heracles Almelo 2–1. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – Heracles Almelo): shots 17–13, shots on target 4–5, expected goals 2.28–0.9, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda have a visible home split

weak

NAC Breda's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

14 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season11.2 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots14 shots/match11.2 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

NAC Breda show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

NAC Breda's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.2 shots/match ▲ShotsNAC Breda · Heracles Almelo11 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricNAC BredaHeracles AlmeloBaseline
Shots11.2 shots/match11 shots/match13.5 shots/match
Shots against16.8 shots/match21.5 shots/match13.5 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

weak

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1 goal/match1.58 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots17 shots13 shotsNAC Breda 17 shots, Heracles 13 shots
  • Shots on target4 shots5 shotsNAC Breda 4 shots, Heracles 5 shots
  • Expected goals2.28 xG0.9 xGNAC Breda 2.28 xG, Heracles 0.9 xG
  • Possession63%37%NAC Breda 63%, Heracles 37%
  • Corners10 corners4 cornersNAC Breda 10 corners, Heracles 4 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls17 foulsNAC Breda 9 fouls, Heracles 17 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ajdin Hrustić · Heracles Almelo · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 56′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTristan van Gilst · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 16′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThomas Bruns · Heracles Almelo · 37′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEnes Mahmutović · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 6′ · 0.05 xG · on targetDamon Mirani · Heracles Almelo · 8′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedYvandro Borges Sanches · Heracles Almelo · 11′ · 0.05 xG · goalSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 17′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 53′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMario Engels · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.07 xG · on targetSem Scheperman · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTristan van Gilst · Heracles Almelo · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSem Scheperman · Heracles Almelo · 8′ · 0.08 xG · on targetLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 76′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 85′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 87′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedSem Scheperman · Heracles Almelo · 38′ · 0.11 xG · on targetJizz Hornkamp · Heracles Almelo · 7′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedMaximilien Balard · NAC Breda · 76′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedAlec Van Hoorenbeeck · Heracles Almelo · 72′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 57′ · 0.28 xG · on targetBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 57′ · 0.32 xG · goalMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 57′ · 0.33 xG · off target or blockedSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 85′ · 0.40 xG · goalJuho Talvitie · NAC Breda · 42′ · 0.51 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 17 shots, 4 on target, 2.53 xG. Heracles Almelo: 14 shots, 5 on target, 1.11 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Boy Kemper · NAC Breda · 57′Sydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 85′Yvandro Borges Sanches · Heracles Almelo · 11′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 2.53 xG · Heracles Almelo 1.11 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0NAC Breda
1Draws
1Heracles
NAC Breda — Heracles · Eredivisie1–1
Heracles — NAC Breda · Eredivisie2–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Heracles in 0 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda6 matchesHeracles6 matches
1 goal/match ▲Goals scored6/60.5 goals/match
1.67 goals/match ▲Goals allowed6/63 goals/match
1.31 xG/match ▲Expected goals6/60.81 xG/match
11.2 shots/matchShots6/611 shots/match
3.83 shots/match ▲Shots on target6/63.33 shots/match
44.7% ●Possession6/640.3%
3.83 corners/match ●Corners6/63.5 corners/match
12.2 fouls/matchFouls6/613.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples6 / 6home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 20 Sept 2025, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaHeracles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — Heracles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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