PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTCFull timeMac3Park StadionFull-time recap
0–4Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPEC ZwollePSV Eindhoven
Shots4 shots/match19 shots/match▲
Shots on target0 shots/match9 shots/match▲
Expected goals0.12 xG/match1.86 xG/match▲
Possession28%72%
Corners4 corners/match8 corners/match
Fouls7 fouls/match8 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Jamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 20′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAnass Salah-Eddine · PSV Eindhoven · 21′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 28′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 36′ · 0.03 xG · on targetJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 49′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArmando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven · 85′ · 0.03 xG · on targetKaj de Rooij · PEC Zwolle · 15′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedJamiro Monteiro · PEC Zwolle · 19′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 33′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGuus Til · PSV Eindhoven · 70′ · 0.05 xG · on targetCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 87′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSergiño Dest · PSV Eindhoven · 53′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJerdy Schouten · PSV Eindhoven · 11′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedRyan Flamingo · PSV Eindhoven · 90′ · 0.10 xG · goalCouhaib Driouech · PSV Eindhoven · 29′ · 0.15 xG · off target or blockedJoey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 67′ · 0.15 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 35′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedDennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 40′ · 0.20 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 71′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 23′ · 0.27 xG · goalIsmael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 66′ · 0.40 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 4 shots, 0 on target, 0.14 xG. PSV Eindhoven: 18 shots, 8 on target, 2.15 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Ismael Saibari · PSV Eindhoven · 23′Dennis Man · PSV Eindhoven · 40′Joey Veerman · PSV Eindhoven · 67′Ryan Flamingo · PSV Eindhoven · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 0.14 xG · PSV Eindhoven 2.15 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines. A second useful context is: PEC Zwolle's home-only shot average is below their full-season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

PSV Eindhoven show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

PSV Eindhoven's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

8.25 shots/match▲ShotsPEC Zwolle · PSV Eindhoven19.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwollePSV EindhovenBaseline
Shots8.25 shots/match19.3 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against16.9 shots/match13.6 shots/match13.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

PEC Zwolle have a visible home split

weak

PEC Zwolle's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

6.5 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season8.25 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots6.5 shots/match8.25 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

PSV Eindhoven have recorded the higher season possession share.

41.8%▲PossessionPEC Zwolle · PSV Eindhoven61.5%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 19.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPEC ZwollePSV EindhovenBaseline
Possession41.8%61.5%50.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

PEC Zwolle favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · PSV Eindhoven in 10 · 4 too close

0.88 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 8/8▲3.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.38 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 8/8▲2.05 xG/match
1.63 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 8/8▲1.39 xG/match
8.25 shots/matchShotsseason · 8/8▲19.3 shots/match
16.9 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 8/8▲13.6 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 8/8▲8 shots/match
6.63 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 8/8▲4.5 shots/match
41.8%Possessionseason · 8/861.5%
2.38 corners/matchCornersseason · 8/86.63 corners/match
5.88 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 8/8▲5 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 8/811.1 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
25%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 8/825%
63%Scoring frequencyseason · 8/8▲88%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

PEC Zwolle13.9
PSV Eindhoven97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

PEC Zwolle5.6
PSV Eindhoven97.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

PEC Zwolle22.2
PSV Eindhoven66.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

PEC Zwolle2.8
PSV Eindhoven86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

PEC Zwolle25
PSV Eindhoven41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

PEC Zwolle2.8
PSV Eindhoven86.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

PEC Zwolle8.3
PSV Eindhoven80.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.8 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲2.6 goals/match
2.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1.6 goals/match
0.61 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲2.21 xG/match
8.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲18.8 shots/match
2 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲8.2 shots/match
39%Possession5/562.2%
2.8 corners/matchCorners5/56.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
8.6 fouls/matchFouls5/511.6 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲3.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.05 xG/match
8.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲19.3 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲8 shots/match
41.8%Possession8/861.5%
2.38 corners/matchCorners8/86.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Window

Season

8 / 8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲3.13 goals/match
1.88 goals/matchGoals allowed8/8▲1.38 goals/match
0.91 xG/matchExpected goals8/8▲2.05 xG/match
8.25 shots/matchShots8/8▲19.3 shots/match
2.13 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲8 shots/match
41.8%Possession8/861.5%
2.38 corners/matchCorners8/86.63 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10 fouls/matchFouls8/811.1 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

4 / 4 matches
0.25 goals/matchGoals scored4/4▲3.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed4/4▲1 goals/match
0.58 xG/matchExpected goals4/4▲2.02 xG/match
6.5 shots/matchShots4/4▲17.5 shots/match
1.25 shots/matchShots on target4/4▲8 shots/match
36.8%Possession4/457%
3 corners/matchCorners4/45 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.75 fouls/matchFouls4/410.8 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.05 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 22:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPEC ZwollePSV Eindhoven
CompetitionEredivisie
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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