PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Rat Verlegh Stadion

NAC Breda 3–4 NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

3–4Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NEC Nijmegen won 3–4.

Shots
1411
Shots on target
58
Expected goals
0.821.19
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

NEC Nijmegen beat NAC Breda 4–3. Recorded in this match (NAC Breda – NEC Nijmegen): shots 14–11, shots on target 5–8, expected goals 0.82–1.19, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

NAC Breda's recent record differs from the season

weak

NAC Breda's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1 goal/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots14 shots11 shotsNAC Breda 14 shots, NEC Nijmegen 11 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots8 shotsNAC Breda 5 shots, NEC Nijmegen 8 shots
  • Expected goals0.82 xG1.19 xGNAC Breda 0.82 xG, NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG
  • Possession44%56%NAC Breda 44%, NEC Nijmegen 56%
  • Corners2 corners3 cornersNAC Breda 2 corners, NEC Nijmegen 3 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls15 foulsNAC Breda 13 fouls, NEC Nijmegen 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Darko Nejašmić · NEC Nijmegen · 25′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 27′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 38′ · 0.02 xG · goalSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 17′ · 0.03 xG · goalTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 34′ · 0.03 xG · on targetSydney van Hooijdonk · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 61′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 37′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedRio Hillen · NAC Breda · 27′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedKoki Ogawa · NEC Nijmegen · 32′ · 0.05 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 55′ · 0.05 xG · goalBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 81′ · 0.05 xG · goalEli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 10′ · 0.06 xG · goalBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 14′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedLewis Holtby · NAC Breda · 37′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 45′ · 0.06 xG · on targetNoe Lebreton · NEC Nijmegen · 51′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 71′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 3′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 78′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedKodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 90′ · 0.12 xG · goalBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 6′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedBoyd Lucassen · NAC Breda · 86′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedDirk Proper · NEC Nijmegen · 69′ · 0.49 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

NAC Breda: 14 shots, 5 on target, 0.83 xG. NEC Nijmegen: 11 shots, 8 on target, 1.16 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Moussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 38′Moussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 55′Boy Kemper · NAC Breda · 81′Eli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 10′Sami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 17′Dirk Proper · NEC Nijmegen · 69′Kodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: NAC Breda 0.83 xG · NEC Nijmegen 1.16 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1NAC Breda
0Draws
2NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen — NAC Breda · Eredivisie3–0
NEC Nijmegen — NAC Breda · Eredivisie3–0
NAC Breda — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: NAC Breda favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · NEC Nijmegen in 8 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

NAC Breda19 matchesNEC Nijmegen18 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored19/18▲ 2.61 goals/match
1.58 goals/match ▲Goals allowed19/181.78 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals19/18▲ 1.81 xG/match
13.5 shots/matchShots19/18▲ 15.6 shots/match
3.95 shots/matchShots on target19/18▲ 6.94 shots/match
49.2%Possession19/18● 56.7%
5.21 corners/matchCorners19/18● 5.22 corners/match
11.4 fouls/matchFouls19/1712.3 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples19 / 18home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 18 Jan 2026, 00:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsNAC BredaNEC Nijmegen
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headNAC Breda — NEC Nijmegen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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