PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 0–1 Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie

0–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Go Ahead Eagles won 0–1.

Shots
197
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
1.860.43
Possession
58%42%

Full time

What the match recorded

Go Ahead Eagles beat Excelsior 1–0. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – Go Ahead Eagles): shots 19–7, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 1.86–0.43, possession 58%–42%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Go Ahead Eagles have a visible away split

moderate

Go Ahead Eagles's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

9.15 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots9.15 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

weak

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is above their season average.

1.2 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.04 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.2 goals/match1.04 goals/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Excelsior show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Excelsior's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

11.7 shots/match ▲ShotsExcelsior · Go Ahead Eagles11.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorGo Ahead EaglesBaseline
Shots11.7 shots/match11.4 shots/match14.1 shots/match
Shots against15.4 shots/match18.4 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots7 shotsExcelsior 19 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 7 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotExcelsior 7 shots, Go Ahead Eagles 1 shot
  • Expected goals1.86 xG0.43 xGExcelsior 1.86 xG, Go Ahead Eagles 0.43 xG
  • Possession58%42%Excelsior 58%, Go Ahead Eagles 42%
  • Corners6 corners3 cornersExcelsior 6 corners, Go Ahead Eagles 3 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls6 foulsExcelsior 11 fouls, Go Ahead Eagles 6 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Jakob Breum · Go Ahead Eagles · 7′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMathis Suray · Go Ahead Eagles · 44′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 53′ · 0.03 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 57′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 71′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMike van Duinen · Excelsior · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 3′ · 0.04 xG · on targetMelle Meulensteen · Go Ahead Eagles · 7′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 78′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 65′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 72′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedStan Henderikx · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedIrakli Yegoian · Excelsior · 37′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedSøren Tengstedt · Go Ahead Eagles · 55′ · 0.06 xG · goalJulius Dirksen · Go Ahead Eagles · 61′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 19′ · 0.08 xG · on targetMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 72′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedStefán Ingi Sigurðarson · Go Ahead Eagles · 81′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 57′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJaden Slory · Go Ahead Eagles · 74′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedMiliano Jonathans · Excelsior · 89′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 35′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedIlias Bronkhorst · Excelsior · 48′ · 0.18 xG · off target or blockedSzymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.18 xG · on targetNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 34′ · 0.20 xG · on targetLewis Schouten · Excelsior · 78′ · 0.27 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 19 shots, 7 on target, 1.81 xG. Go Ahead Eagles: 7 shots, 1 on target, 0.42 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Søren Tengstedt · Go Ahead Eagles · 55′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 1.81 xG · Go Ahead Eagles 0.42 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
1Draws
3Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–0
Go Ahead Eagles — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–0
Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie1–1
Excelsior — Go Ahead Eagles · Eredivisie2–1
Go Ahead Eagles — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 2 of 11 directional metrics · Go Ahead Eagles in 4 · 5 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior25 matchesGo Ahead Eagles25 matches
1.04 goals/matchGoals scored25/25▲ 1.52 goals/match
1.68 goals/matchGoals allowed25/25▲ 1.56 goals/match
1.24 xG/matchExpected goals25/251.2 xG/match
11.7 shots/matchShots25/2511.4 shots/match
4.08 shots/matchShots on target25/25▲ 4.96 shots/match
46.1%Possession25/25● 49.9%
4.2 corners/matchCorners25/25● 5.44 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls25/259.52 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples25 / 25home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 1 Mar 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorGo Ahead Eagles
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — Go Ahead Eagles
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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