PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium

FC Groningen 3–1 AFC Ajax · Eredivisie

3–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

FC Groningen won 3–1.

Shots
1313
Shots on target
65
Expected goals
1.921.86
Possession
40%60%

Full time

What the match recorded

FC Groningen beat AFC Ajax 3–1. Recorded in this match (FC Groningen – AFC Ajax): shots 13–13, shots on target 6–5, expected goals 1.92–1.86, possession 40%–60%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

AFC Ajax's recent record differs from the season

weak

AFC Ajax's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1.4 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.85 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1.4 goals/match1.85 goals/match1.49 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots13 shots13 shotsFC Groningen 13 shots, AFC Ajax 13 shots
  • Shots on target6 shots5 shotsFC Groningen 6 shots, AFC Ajax 5 shots
  • Expected goals1.92 xG1.86 xGFC Groningen 1.92 xG, AFC Ajax 1.86 xG
  • Possession40%60%FC Groningen 40%, AFC Ajax 60%
  • Corners6 corners8 cornersFC Groningen 6 corners, AFC Ajax 8 corners
  • Fouls5 fouls7 foulsFC Groningen 5 fouls, AFC Ajax 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Steven Berghuis · AFC Ajax · 1′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 15′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorthy Mokio · AFC Ajax · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSean Steur · AFC Ajax · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 62′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJorg Schreuders · FC Groningen · 71′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDavid van der Werff · FC Groningen · 42′ · 0.03 xG · on targetAnton Gaaei · AFC Ajax · 87′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 90′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 77′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRayane Bounida · AFC Ajax · 79′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavid van der Werff · FC Groningen · 46′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedOwen Wijndal · AFC Ajax · 36′ · 0.07 xG · on targetThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 59′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedJosip Šutalo · AFC Ajax · 80′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWouter Prins · FC Groningen · 84′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedWout Weghorst · AFC Ajax · 25′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedOskar Zawada · FC Groningen · 65′ · 0.12 xG · goalMarvin Peersman · FC Groningen · 70′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedOskar Zawada · FC Groningen · 72′ · 0.15 xG · goalRui Mendes · FC Groningen · 89′ · 0.16 xG · on targetThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 49′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedThom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 6′ · 0.28 xG · goalMika Godts · AFC Ajax · 55′ · 0.43 xG · off target or blockedTravis Hernes · FC Groningen · 52′ · 0.55 xG · on targetDavy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 30′ · 0.89 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

FC Groningen: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.91 xG. AFC Ajax: 13 shots, 5 on target, 1.85 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Thom van Bergen · FC Groningen · 6′Oskar Zawada · FC Groningen · 65′Oskar Zawada · FC Groningen · 72′Davy Klaassen · AFC Ajax · 30′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: FC Groningen 1.91 xG · AFC Ajax 1.85 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

0FC Groningen
1Draws
4AFC Ajax
AFC Ajax — FC Groningen · Eredivisie2–0
FC Groningen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–2
AFC Ajax — FC Groningen · Eredivisie3–1
FC Groningen — AFC Ajax · Eredivisie2–3
AFC Ajax — FC Groningen · Eredivisie6–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: FC Groningen favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · AFC Ajax in 3 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

FC Groningen26 matchesAFC Ajax26 matches
1.38 goals/matchGoals scored26/26▲ 1.85 goals/match
1.38 goals/matchGoals allowed26/26▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.71 xG/match ▲Expected goals26/261.57 xG/match
15.8 shots/match ▲Shots26/2614.8 shots/match
5.81 shots/matchShots on target26/266.08 shots/match
50.8%Possession26/26● 57.2%
6.38 corners/match ●Corners26/265.12 corners/match
10.7 fouls/matchFouls26/2610.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples26 / 26home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 7 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFC GroningenAFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headFC Groningen — AFC Ajax
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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