PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Stadion Woudestein

Excelsior 0–2 NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

NEC Nijmegen won 0–2.

Shots
912
Shots on target
55
Expected goals
0.721.32
Possession
45%55%

Full time

What the match recorded

NEC Nijmegen beat Excelsior 2–0. Recorded in this match (Excelsior – NEC Nijmegen): shots 9–12, shots on target 5–5, expected goals 0.72–1.32, possession 45%–55%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Excelsior's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Excelsior's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.52 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

NEC Nijmegen show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

NEC Nijmegen's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit above their competition baselines.

12 shots/match ▲ShotsExcelsior · NEC Nijmegen16.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorNEC NijmegenBaseline
Shots12 shots/match16.3 shots/match14.2 shots/match
Shots against15 shots/match11.4 shots/match13 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

NEC Nijmegen have recorded the higher season possession share.

46.6%PossessionExcelsior · NEC Nijmegen● 56.4%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.9 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricExcelsiorNEC NijmegenBaseline
Possession46.6%56.4%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots12 shotsExcelsior 9 shots, NEC Nijmegen 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots5 shotsExcelsior 5 shots, NEC Nijmegen 5 shots
  • Expected goals0.72 xG1.32 xGExcelsior 0.72 xG, NEC Nijmegen 1.32 xG
  • Possession45%55%Excelsior 45%, NEC Nijmegen 55%
  • Corners2 corners5 cornersExcelsior 2 corners, NEC Nijmegen 5 corners
  • Fouls8 fouls9 foulsExcelsior 8 fouls, NEC Nijmegen 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Arthur Zagre · Excelsior · 57′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 61′ · 0.01 xG · on targetEli Dasa · NEC Nijmegen · 10′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 33′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 63′ · 0.02 xG · on targetSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 65′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedKodai Sano · NEC Nijmegen · 2′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 67′ · 0.03 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 80′ · 0.04 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 73′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMike van Duinen · Excelsior · 84′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedTjaronn Chery · NEC Nijmegen · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDanilo · NEC Nijmegen · 88′ · 0.08 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 16′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 50′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedSami Ouaissa · NEC Nijmegen · 13′ · 0.14 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 29′ · 0.21 xG · on targetGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 57′ · 0.21 xG · on targetBaşar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 71′ · 0.34 xG · goalBryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 30′ · 0.47 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Excelsior: 9 shots, 5 on target, 0.72 xG. NEC Nijmegen: 12 shots, 5 on target, 1.31 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen · 30′Başar Önal · NEC Nijmegen · 71′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Excelsior 0.72 xG · NEC Nijmegen 1.31 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Excelsior
1Draws
3NEC Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior · Eredivisie5–0
Excelsior — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior · Eredivisie3–4
Excelsior — NEC Nijmegen · Eredivisie0–3
NEC Nijmegen — Excelsior · Eredivisie1–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Excelsior favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · NEC Nijmegen in 9 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Excelsior29 matchesNEC Nijmegen29 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored29/29▲ 2.45 goals/match
1.69 goals/matchGoals allowed29/291.62 goals/match
1.25 xG/matchExpected goals29/29▲ 1.75 xG/match
12 shots/matchShots29/29▲ 16.3 shots/match
4.1 shots/matchShots on target29/29▲ 6.83 shots/match
46.6%Possession29/29● 56.4%
4.1 corners/matchCorners29/29● 5.76 corners/match
12.3 fouls/matchFouls29/2811.5 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples29 / 29home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Apr 2026, 23:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsExcelsiorNEC Nijmegen
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headExcelsior — NEC Nijmegen
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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