PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Mac3Park Stadion

PEC Zwolle 2–2 Excelsior · Eredivisie

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

PEC Zwolle and Excelsior drew 2–2.

Shots
1516
Shots on target
53
Expected goals
2.661.5
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

PEC Zwolle and Excelsior drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (PEC Zwolle – Excelsior): shots 15–16, shots on target 5–3, expected goals 2.66–1.5, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

PEC Zwolle's recent record differs from the season

moderate

PEC Zwolle's last-five shots average is above their season average.

13.4 shots/match ▲ShotsLast 5 · Season9.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Shots13.4 shots/match9.9 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots16 shotsPEC Zwolle 15 shots, Excelsior 16 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots3 shotsPEC Zwolle 5 shots, Excelsior 3 shots
  • Expected goals2.66 xG1.5 xGPEC Zwolle 2.66 xG, Excelsior 1.5 xG
  • Possession49%51%PEC Zwolle 49%, Excelsior 51%
  • Corners5 corners2 cornersPEC Zwolle 5 corners, Excelsior 2 corners
  • Fouls10 fouls13 foulsPEC Zwolle 10 fouls, Excelsior 13 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ryan Thomas · PEC Zwolle · 31′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSimon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle · 47′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedEmil Hansson · Excelsior · 68′ · 0.02 xG · on targetNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 75′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 87′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 89′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 12′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedOlivier Aertssen · PEC Zwolle · 55′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedZico Buurmeester · PEC Zwolle · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedLennard Hartjes · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 59′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedGyan de Regt · Excelsior · 30′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedRick Meissen · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedZico Buurmeester · PEC Zwolle · 58′ · 0.06 xG · on targetArthur Zagre · Excelsior · 47′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 90′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 66′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedSimon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle · 2′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 40′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedCasper Widell · Excelsior · 16′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedKoen Kostons · PEC Zwolle · 2′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedThomas Buitink · PEC Zwolle · 80′ · 0.15 xG · on targetNoah Naujoks · Excelsior · 76′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedSzymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 80′ · 0.20 xG · goalThijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 3′ · 0.21 xG · goalOdysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle · 1′ · 0.27 xG · on targetDerensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 16′ · 0.40 xG · goalSimon Graves Jensen · PEC Zwolle · 54′ · 0.66 xG · off target or blockedOdysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle · 60′ · 0.68 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

PEC Zwolle: 15 shots, 5 on target, 2.55 xG. Excelsior: 16 shots, 3 on target, 1.48 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Thijs Oosting · PEC Zwolle · 3′Odysseus Velanas · PEC Zwolle · 60′Derensili Sanches Fernandes · Excelsior · 16′Szymon Włodarczyk · Excelsior · 80′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: PEC Zwolle 2.55 xG · Excelsior 1.48 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2PEC Zwolle
0Draws
1Excelsior
Excelsior — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie2–1
PEC Zwolle — Excelsior · Eredivisie2–1
Excelsior — PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie2–4

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: PEC Zwolle favored in 3 of 11 directional metrics · Excelsior in 6 · 2 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

PEC Zwolle30 matchesExcelsior30 matches
1.33 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301.03 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.7 goals/match
1.22 xG/matchExpected goals30/301.26 xG/match
9.9 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 12.2 shots/match
3.57 shots/matchShots on target30/30▲ 4.07 shots/match
44.8%Possession30/30● 46.7%
3.6 corners/matchCorners30/30● 4.03 corners/match
11.6 fouls/matchFouls30/3012.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 16:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPEC ZwolleExcelsior
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headPEC Zwolle — Excelsior
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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