PitchMath
Eredivisie · 2025Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Fortuna Sittard 1–1 NAC Breda · Eredivisie

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda drew 1–1.

Shots
1014
Shots on target
27
Expected goals
1.590.75
Possession
44%56%

Full time

What the match recorded

Fortuna Sittard and NAC Breda drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Fortuna Sittard – NAC Breda): shots 10–14, shots on target 2–7, expected goals 1.59–0.75, possession 44%–56%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Fortuna Sittard's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goal/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.47 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goal/match1.47 goals/match1.55 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Fortuna Sittard have a visible home split

moderate

Fortuna Sittard's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.1 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.1 shots/match12.8 shots/match14.3 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots14 shotsFortuna Sittard 10 shots, NAC Breda 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots7 shotsFortuna Sittard 2 shots, NAC Breda 7 shots
  • Expected goals1.59 xG0.75 xGFortuna Sittard 1.59 xG, NAC Breda 0.75 xG
  • Possession44%56%Fortuna Sittard 44%, NAC Breda 56%
  • Corners5 corners8 cornersFortuna Sittard 5 corners, NAC Breda 8 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls12 foulsFortuna Sittard 11 fouls, NAC Breda 12 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Syb Van Ottele · Fortuna Sittard · 16′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedDenis Odoi · NAC Breda · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAmine Salama · NAC Breda · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Ihattaren · Fortuna Sittard · 90′ · 0.02 xG · on targetRaul Paula · NAC Breda · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFredrik Jensen · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.03 xG · on targetLeo Greiml · NAC Breda · 76′ · 0.03 xG · on targetMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedMohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 90′ · 0.03 xG · goalDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 24′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMoussa Soumano · NAC Breda · 88′ · 0.04 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 1′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 29′ · 0.05 xG · on targetFredrik Jensen · NAC Breda · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBoy Kemper · NAC Breda · 82′ · 0.05 xG · on targetKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 31′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 14′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedKamal Sowah · NAC Breda · 26′ · 0.13 xG · off target or blockedDimitris Limnios · Fortuna Sittard · 7′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedAndré Ayew · NAC Breda · 10′ · 0.16 xG · on targetLance Duijvestijn · Fortuna Sittard · 40′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedKristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 56′ · 0.41 xG · goalPaul Gladon · Fortuna Sittard · 85′ · 0.57 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Fortuna Sittard: 10 shots, 2 on target, 1.56 xG. NAC Breda: 14 shots, 7 on target, 0.75 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Kristoffer Peterson · Fortuna Sittard · 56′Mohamed Nassoh · NAC Breda · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Fortuna Sittard 1.56 xG · NAC Breda 0.75 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Fortuna Sittard
0Draws
2NAC Breda
NAC Breda — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie2–1
Fortuna Sittard — NAC Breda · Eredivisie1–0
NAC Breda — Fortuna Sittard · Eredivisie1–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Fortuna Sittard favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · NAC Breda in 7

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Fortuna Sittard30 matchesNAC Breda30 matches
1.47 goals/match ▲Goals scored30/301 goal/match
1.83 goals/matchGoals allowed30/30▲ 1.7 goals/match
1.26 xG/match ▲Expected goals30/301.15 xG/match
12.8 shots/matchShots30/30▲ 13.8 shots/match
4.5 shots/match ▲Shots on target30/304.17 shots/match
44.9%Possession30/30● 49.2%
4.5 corners/matchCorners30/30● 5.6 corners/match
12.7 fouls/matchFouls30/3011.1 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples30 / 30home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 14:15 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Eredivisie

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsFortuna SittardNAC Breda
CompetitionEredivisieEredivisie 2025/26
Head-to-headFortuna Sittard — NAC Breda
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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