Süper Lig · 2025Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTCFull timeRecep Tayyip Erdogan StadiumFull-time recap
23Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricKasımpaşaGaziantep FK
Shots20 shots/match9 shots/match
Shots on target6 shots/match7 shots/match
Expected goals2.45 xG/match1.18 xG/match
Possession61%39%
Corners3 corners/match4 corners/match
Fouls15 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alexandru Maxim · Gaziantep FK · 55′ · 0.01 xG · on targetAndri Baldursson · Kasımpaşa · 24′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 37′ · 0.02 xG · on targetAndri Baldursson · Kasımpaşa · 39′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedJhon Espinoza · Kasımpaşa · 53′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 85′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 26′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetDeian Sorescu · Gaziantep FK · 58′ · 0.04 xG · on targetAndri Baldursson · Kasımpaşa · 61′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAli Yavuz Kol · Kasımpaşa · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedMelih Kabasakal · Gaziantep FK · 13′ · 0.06 xG · goalKacper Kozłowski · Gaziantep FK · 59′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedCafú · Kasımpaşa · 78′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedEmmanuel Boateng · Gaziantep FK · 90′ · 0.06 xG · on targetArda Kızıldağ · Gaziantep FK · 74′ · 0.08 xG · goalHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 24′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJuninho Bacuna · Gaziantep FK · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 44′ · 0.10 xG · on targetAttila Szalai · Kasımpaşa · 64′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Fall · Kasımpaşa · 55′ · 0.13 xG · on targetPape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 70′ · 0.18 xG · goalDeian Sorescu · Gaziantep FK · 79′ · 0.26 xG · on targetMamadou Fall · Kasımpaşa · 19′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedMamadou Fall · Kasımpaşa · 64′ · 0.34 xG · off target or blockedChristopher Lungoyi · Gaziantep FK · 30′ · 0.53 xG · goalHaris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 87′ · 0.82 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Kasımpaşa: 20 shots, 6 on target, 2.54 xG. Gaziantep FK: 9 shots, 7 on target, 1.19 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.530′HT90′Pape Habib Gueye · Kasımpaşa · 70′Haris Hajradinović · Kasımpaşa · 87′Melih Kabasakal · Gaziantep FK · 13′Christopher Lungoyi · Gaziantep FK · 30′Arda Kızıldağ · Gaziantep FK · 74′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Kasımpaşa 2.54 xG · Gaziantep FK 1.19 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.

Both teams have elevated fouls records

weak

Each team's season fouls average is above the competition baseline.

20 fouls/matchFoulsKasımpaşa · Gaziantep FK13.8 fouls/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Both team averages are compared with the same competition baseline.

Window: season

MetricKasımpaşaGaziantep FKBaseline
Fouls20 fouls/match13.8 fouls/match12.3 fouls/match

Caveat: A shared historical pattern is descriptive and may not repeat in one fixture.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Kasımpaşa favored in 0 of 14 directional metrics · Gaziantep FK in 0 · 14 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 3/41.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 3/42.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 3/41.2 xG/match
1.33 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 3/41.85 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShotsseason · 3/414 shots/match
12 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 3/414.3 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 3/43.5 shots/match
4.67 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 3/45.25 shots/match
56%Possessionseason · 3/450%
4 corners/matchCornersseason · 3/45.25 corners/match
3.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 3/43.25 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
20 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 3/413.8 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
0%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 3/40%
67%Scoring frequencyseason · 3/450%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Kasımpaşa88.5
Gaziantep FK57.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Kasımpaşa44.9
Gaziantep FK70.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Kasımpaşa46.2
Gaziantep FK25.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Kasımpaşa34.6
Gaziantep FK80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Kasımpaşa96.2
Gaziantep FK80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Kasımpaşa38.5
Gaziantep FK80.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Kasımpaşa54.8
Gaziantep FK77
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/41.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/42.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.2 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots3/414 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/43.5 shots/match
56%Possession3/450%
4 corners/matchCorners3/45.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
20 fouls/matchFouls3/413.8 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/41.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/42.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.2 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots3/414 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/43.5 shots/match
56%Possession3/450%
4 corners/matchCorners3/45.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
20 fouls/matchFouls3/413.8 fouls/match

Window

Season

3 / 4 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored3/41.25 goals/match
2 goals/matchGoals allowed3/42.25 goals/match
1.12 xG/matchExpected goals3/41.2 xG/match
12.7 shots/matchShots3/414 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target3/43.5 shots/match
56%Possession3/450%
4 corners/matchCorners3/45.25 corners/match
Cards0/0
20 fouls/matchFouls3/413.8 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

2 / 2 matches
Goals scored2/2
Goals allowed2/2
Expected goals2/2
Shots2/2
Shots on target2/2
Possession2/2
Corners2/2
Cards0/0
Fouls2/2

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

11.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/16.9 days
1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade C · Limited evidencelimited
Season samples3 / 4home / away teams
Recent samples3 / 4last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • At least one team has fewer than the configured season sample.
  • At least one team has an incomplete last-five window.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The completed-match sample is too small for broad style conclusions.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 30 Aug 2025, 20:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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