PitchMath
Championship · 2025Deepdale

Preston North End 2–2 Middlesbrough · Championship

2–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Preston North End and Middlesbrough drew 2–2.

Shots
714
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.751.52
Possession
39%61%

Full time

What the match recorded

Preston North End and Middlesbrough drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Preston North End – Middlesbrough): shots 7–14, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.75–1.52, possession 39%–61%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Preston North End show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Preston North End's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

9.4 shots/match ▲ShotsPreston North End · Middlesbrough11.6 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricPreston North EndMiddlesbroughBaseline
Shots9.4 shots/match11.6 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots against13.2 shots/match8.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Preston North End have a visible home split

weak

Preston North End's home-only shot average is below their full-season average.

7.67 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season9.4 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots7.67 shots/match9.4 shots/match12 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

The teams have contrasting possession records

moderate

Middlesbrough have recorded the higher season possession share.

42%PossessionPreston North End · Middlesbrough● 51.6%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 9.6 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricPreston North EndMiddlesbroughBaseline
Possession42%51.6%49.4%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots7 shots14 shotsPreston North End 7 shots, Middlesbrough 14 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsPreston North End 2 shots, Middlesbrough 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.75 xG1.52 xGPreston North End 0.75 xG, Middlesbrough 1.52 xG
  • Possession39%61%Preston North End 39%, Middlesbrough 61%
  • Corners3 corners4 cornersPreston North End 3 corners, Middlesbrough 4 corners
  • Fouls13 fouls7 foulsPreston North End 13 fouls, Middlesbrough 7 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Aidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedDavid Strelec · Middlesbrough · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCallum Brittain · Middlesbrough · 78′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 9′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedHayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 45′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDavid Strelec · Middlesbrough · 51′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedSontje Hansen · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.06 xG · goalAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 18′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTommy Conway · Middlesbrough · 30′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 22′ · 0.09 xG · goalLuke Ayling · Middlesbrough · 25′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedHayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 52′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 60′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedAlan Browne · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.09 xG · off target or blockedJordan Storey · Preston North End · 88′ · 0.11 xG · goalMichael Smith · Preston North End · 66′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedMatt Targett · Middlesbrough · 72′ · 0.19 xG · goalTommy Conway · Middlesbrough · 72′ · 0.23 xG · off target or blockedAndrew Hughes · Preston North End · 42′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough · 53′ · 0.24 xG · off target or blockedDavid Strelec · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.30 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Preston North End: 7 shots, 2 on target, 0.76 xG. Middlesbrough: 14 shots, 3 on target, 1.52 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Lewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 22′Jordan Storey · Preston North End · 88′Matt Targett · Middlesbrough · 72′Sontje Hansen · Middlesbrough · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Preston North End 0.76 xG · Middlesbrough 1.52 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

2Preston North End
1Draws
2Middlesbrough
Preston North End — Middlesbrough · Championship2–1
Middlesbrough — Preston North End · Championship1–1
Preston North End — Middlesbrough · Championship2–1
Middlesbrough — Preston North End · Championship4–0
Middlesbrough — Preston North End · Championship4–0

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Preston North End favored in 1 of 11 directional metrics · Middlesbrough in 10

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Preston North End5 matchesMiddlesbrough5 matches
1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲ 1.8 goals/match
1 goal/matchGoals allowed5/5▲ 0.6 goals/match
1.18 xG/match ▲Expected goals5/51.09 xG/match
9.4 shots/matchShots5/5▲ 11.6 shots/match
2.4 shots/matchShots on target5/5▲ 4.2 shots/match
42%Possession5/5● 51.6%
4 corners/matchCorners5/5● 5.8 corners/match
10.8 fouls/matchFouls5/510.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples5 / 5home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 13 Sept 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPreston North EndMiddlesbrough
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPreston North End — Middlesbrough
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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