PitchMath
Championship · 2025Fratton Park

Portsmouth 2–2 Watford · Championship

2–2Historical match

Watford

DDLLW

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Portsmouth and Watford drew 2–2.

Shots
1512
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.11.94
Possession
63%37%

Full time

What the match recorded

Portsmouth and Watford drew 2–2. Recorded in this match (Portsmouth – Watford): shots 15–12, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.1–1.94, possession 63%–37%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Portsmouth have a visible home split

weak

Portsmouth's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

17.3 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season12.9 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots17.3 shots/match12.9 shots/match12.9 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots15 shots12 shotsPortsmouth 15 shots, Watford 12 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsPortsmouth 5 shots, Watford 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.1 xG1.94 xGPortsmouth 1.1 xG, Watford 1.94 xG
  • Possession63%37%Portsmouth 63%, Watford 37%
  • Corners3 corners3 cornersPortsmouth 3 corners, Watford 3 corners
  • Fouls9 fouls15 foulsPortsmouth 9 fouls, Watford 15 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 40′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedMarlon Pack · Portsmouth · 17′ · 0.02 xG · on targetColby Bishop · Portsmouth · 42′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRocco Vata · Watford · 68′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 81′ · 0.02 xG · on targetMatthew Pollock · Watford · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConnor Ogilvie · Portsmouth · 88′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRocco Vata · Watford · 90′ · 0.03 xG · on targetYang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 17′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 84′ · 0.04 xG · on targetJohn Swift · Portsmouth · 19′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedNestory Irankunda · Watford · 34′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedColby Bishop · Portsmouth · 53′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedJeremy Ngakia · Watford · 74′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedColby Bishop · Portsmouth · 79′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedVivaldo · Watford · 8′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedJohn Swift · Portsmouth · 79′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 20′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAndre Dozzell · Portsmouth · 37′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 79′ · 0.10 xG · goalVivaldo · Watford · 90′ · 0.10 xG · on targetYang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 5′ · 0.11 xG · goalMoussa Sissoko · Watford · 56′ · 0.12 xG · on targetYang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 25′ · 0.20 xG · on targetJohn Swift · Portsmouth · 77′ · 0.22 xG · off target or blockedImrân Louza · Watford · 46′ · 0.52 xG · goalRocco Vata · Watford · 56′ · 0.92 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Portsmouth: 15 shots, 5 on target, 1.13 xG. Watford: 12 shots, 6 on target, 2.04 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 5′Adrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 79′Imrân Louza · Watford · 46′Rocco Vata · Watford · 56′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Portsmouth 1.13 xG · Watford 2.04 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Portsmouth
0Draws
1Watford
Portsmouth — Watford · Championship1–0
Watford — Portsmouth · Championship2–1

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Portsmouth favored in 4 of 11 directional metrics · Watford in 4 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Portsmouth8 matchesWatford8 matches
0.88 goals/matchGoals scored8/8▲ 1.13 goals/match
1.13 goals/match ▲Goals allowed8/81.25 goals/match
1.27 xG/matchExpected goals8/81.25 xG/match
12.9 shots/matchShots8/813 shots/match
3.38 shots/matchShots on target8/8▲ 4 shots/match
50.9% ●Possession8/850.6%
5.63 corners/match ●Corners8/83.5 corners/match
10.5 fouls/matchFouls8/812.4 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples8 / 8home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Wed, 1 Oct 2025, 22:45 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsPortsmouthWatford
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headPortsmouth — Watford
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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