PitchMath
Championship · 2025Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTCFull timeFratton ParkFull-time recap
1–0Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricPortsmouthMiddlesbrough
Shots8 shots/match12 shots/match▲
Shots on target1 shots/match1 shots/match
Expected goals0.48 xG/match1 xG/match▲
Possession38%62%●
Corners2 corners/match8 corners/match●
Fouls13 fouls/match6 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Hayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 50′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAdrian Segečić · Portsmouth · 69′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMárk Kosznovszky · Portsmouth · 88′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedMorgan Whittaker · Middlesbrough · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 20′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 30′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 46′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedRegan Poole · Portsmouth · 68′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJohn Swift · Portsmouth · 20′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedMatt Targett · Middlesbrough · 51′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 6′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedMatt Targett · Middlesbrough · 83′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedTommy Conway · Middlesbrough · 60′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedTommy Conway · Middlesbrough · 61′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCallum Brittain · Middlesbrough · 61′ · 0.09 xG · on targetYang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 23′ · 0.12 xG · goalSontje Hansen · Middlesbrough · 52′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedHayden Hackney · Middlesbrough · 8′ · 0.19 xG · off target or blockedAidan Morris · Middlesbrough · 60′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedConor Chaplin · Portsmouth · 18′ · 0.27 xG · off target or blocked
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Portsmouth: 8 shots, 1 on target, 0.56 xG. Middlesbrough: 12 shots, 1 on target, 1.03 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

00.751.50′HT90′Yang Min-hyeok · Portsmouth · 23′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Portsmouth 0.56 xG · Middlesbrough 1.03 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Portsmouth, Middlesbrough. A second useful context is: Middlesbrough's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. Limitation: Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

moderate

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Portsmouth, Middlesbrough.

2.8 days▲Rest daysPortsmouth · Middlesbrough3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricPortsmouthMiddlesbroughBaseline
Rest days2.8 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches2 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

Middlesbrough's recent record differs from the season

weak

Middlesbrough's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.33 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for1 goals/match1.33 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Portsmouth have a visible home split

moderate

Portsmouth's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

15.4 shots/match▲ShotsHome only · Season12.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots15.4 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams — history, not a forecast.

1Portsmouth
1Draws
0Middlesbrough
Portsmouth — Middlesbrough · Championship2–1
Middlesbrough — Portsmouth · Championship2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages · sample sizes shown with each metric. Context, not a forecast.

Where the edge is

Portsmouth favored in 2 of 13 directional metrics · Middlesbrough in 6 · 5 too close

0.89 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 9/9▲1.33 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.67 goals/match
1.18 xG/match▲Expected goalsseason · 9/90.92 xG/match
1.29 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 9/9▲0.72 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shotsseason · 9/910.9 shots/match
12.8 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 9/9▲10.9 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 9/9▲3.44 shots/match
3.89 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 9/9▲2 shots/match
49.4%Possessionseason · 9/9●51.2%
5.22 corners/matchCornersseason · 9/95.22 corners/match
4.67 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 9/94.67 corners/match
—Cardsseason · 0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/99.56 fouls/match
—Passesseason · 0/0—
—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—
—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—
—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—
—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—
—Offsidesseason · 0/0—
44%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 9/944%
78%Scoring frequencyseason · 9/978%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Portsmouth47.9
Middlesbrough52.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Portsmouth27.8
Middlesbrough41.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Portsmouth50
Middlesbrough91.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Portsmouth47.9
Middlesbrough14.6
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Portsmouth41.7
Middlesbrough16.7
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 50%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Portsmouth70.8
Middlesbrough70.8
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Portsmouth44.8
Middlesbrough36
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Season

Portsmouth9 matchesMiddlesbrough9 matches
0.89 goals/matchGoals scored9/9▲1.33 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲0.67 goals/match
1.18 xG/match▲Expected goals9/90.92 xG/match
12.3 shots/match▲Shots9/910.9 shots/match
3.11 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲3.44 shots/match
49.4%Possession9/9●51.2%
5.22 corners/matchCorners9/95.22 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/99.56 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

Portsmouth5 matchesMiddlesbrough5 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.6 goals/match
1.2 goals/matchGoals allowed5/5▲1 goals/match
1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.06 xG/match
15.4 shots/match▲Shots5/511.2 shots/match
3.2 shots/match▲Shots on target5/52.8 shots/match
53.6%●Possession5/552.8%
6.2 corners/match●Corners5/55.6 corners/match
—Cards0/0—
9.2 fouls/matchFouls5/511 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

2.8 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/13.8 days
3 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidencelimited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4
TeamsPortsmouthMiddlesbrough
CompetitionChampionship
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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