PitchMath
Championship · 2025Pride Park Stadium

Derby County 1–1 Southampton · Championship

1–1Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Derby County and Southampton drew 1–1.

Shots
913
Shots on target
56
Expected goals
1.361.06
Possession
37%63%

Full time

What the match recorded

Derby County and Southampton drew 1–1. Recorded in this match (Derby County – Southampton): shots 9–13, shots on target 5–6, expected goals 1.36–1.06, possession 37%–63%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Derby County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.8 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.22 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.8 goals/match1.22 goals/match1.22 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Derby County have a visible home split

moderate

Derby County's home-only shot average is above their full-season average.

10.4 shots/match ▲ShotsHome only · Season8.22 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: home

MetricHome onlySeasonBaseline
Shots10.4 shots/match8.22 shots/match12.4 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Recent scheduling adds useful context

weak

A compressed recent schedule is recorded for Derby County, Southampton.

3.79 days ▲Rest daysDerby County · Southampton3.8 days
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Rest days and completed matches in the prior 14 days are shown directly.

Window: previous 14 days

MetricDerby CountySouthamptonBaseline
Rest days3.79 days3.8 days—
Matches last 14 days3 matches3 matches—

Caveat: The database does not describe travel, rotation decisions or player-level workload.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots9 shots13 shotsDerby County 9 shots, Southampton 13 shots
  • Shots on target5 shots6 shotsDerby County 5 shots, Southampton 6 shots
  • Expected goals1.36 xG1.06 xGDerby County 1.36 xG, Southampton 1.06 xG
  • Possession37%63%Derby County 37%, Southampton 63%
  • Corners3 corners5 cornersDerby County 3 corners, Southampton 5 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls9 foulsDerby County 11 fouls, Southampton 9 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Leo Scienza · Southampton · 38′ · 0.02 xG · on targetLeo Scienza · Southampton · 44′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 50′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 6′ · 0.03 xG · on targetCraig Forsyth · Derby County · 14′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedTom Fellows · Southampton · 71′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedShea Charles · Southampton · 76′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedFinn Azaz · Southampton · 89′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Derby County · 13′ · 0.04 xG · on targetRoss Stewart · Southampton · 26′ · 0.04 xG · on targetTom Fellows · Southampton · 43′ · 0.04 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Derby County · 65′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 56′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedKayden Jackson · Derby County · 81′ · 0.06 xG · on targetTom Fellows · Southampton · 90′ · 0.09 xG · on targetCarlton Morris · Derby County · 9′ · 0.12 xG · off target or blockedAdam Armstrong · Southampton · 59′ · 0.14 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 4′ · 0.17 xG · off target or blockedPatrick Agyemang · Derby County · 40′ · 0.19 xG · goalAdam Armstrong · Southampton · 7′ · 0.36 xG · goalAndreas Weimann · Derby County · 9′ · 0.59 xG · on targetAndreas Weimann · Derby County · 17′ · 0.63 xG · on target
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Derby County: 9 shots, 5 on target, 1.76 xG. Southampton: 13 shots, 6 on target, 1.02 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

0120′HT90′Patrick Agyemang · Derby County · 40′Adam Armstrong · Southampton · 7′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Derby County 1.76 xG · Southampton 1.02 xG.

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Derby County favored in 0 of 11 directional metrics · Southampton in 8 · 3 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Derby County9 matchesSouthampton9 matches
1.22 goals/matchGoals scored9/91.22 goals/match
1.67 goals/matchGoals allowed9/9▲ 1.33 goals/match
0.92 xG/matchExpected goals9/9▲ 1.67 xG/match
8.22 shots/matchShots9/9▲ 14.4 shots/match
2.67 shots/matchShots on target9/9▲ 4.44 shots/match
42.7%Possession9/9● 59.6%
3.33 corners/matchCorners9/9● 5.89 corners/match
12.8 fouls/matchFouls9/912.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade B · Useful evidenceUseful evidence — limited
Season samples9 / 9home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Evidence is usable but does not meet the strongest completeness threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 4 Oct 2025, 18:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsDerby CountySouthampton
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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