PitchMath
Championship · 2025Kassam Stadium

Oxford United 1–0 Derby County · Championship

1–0Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Oxford United won 1–0.

Shots
196
Shots on target
71
Expected goals
2.170.25
Possession
49%51%

Full time

What the match recorded

Oxford United beat Derby County 1–0. Recorded in this match (Oxford United – Derby County): shots 19–6, shots on target 7–1, expected goals 2.17–0.25, possession 49%–51%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Derby County's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Derby County's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1.1 goals/match1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Derby County have a visible away split

moderate

Derby County's away-only shot average is below their full-season average.

5.6 shots/match ▲ShotsAway only · Season8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Venue-only shot volume is compared with the same team's season record.

Window: away

MetricAway onlySeasonBaseline
Shots5.6 shots/match8 shots/match12.8 shots/match

Caveat: Venue splits can reflect opponent mix and should be read with the listed sample.

Derby County show a distinct attacking-volume record

moderate

Derby County's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.3 shots/match ▲ShotsOxford United · Derby County8 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricOxford UnitedDerby CountyBaseline
Shots14.3 shots/match8 shots/match12.8 shots/match
Shots against13.1 shots/match14.2 shots/match12.7 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots19 shots6 shotsOxford United 19 shots, Derby County 6 shots
  • Shots on target7 shots1 shotOxford United 7 shots, Derby County 1 shot
  • Expected goals2.17 xG0.25 xGOxford United 2.17 xG, Derby County 0.25 xG
  • Possession49%51%Oxford United 49%, Derby County 51%
  • Corners4 corners12 cornersOxford United 4 corners, Derby County 12 corners

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Ben Brereton Díaz · Derby County · 5′ · 0.01 xG · on targetCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 24′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Weimann · Derby County · 29′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Derby County · 79′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedSiriki Dembélé · Oxford United · 81′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedBrian De Keersmaecker · Oxford United · 19′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedStanley Mills · Oxford United · 45′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedEbou Adams · Derby County · 83′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedAndreas Weimann · Derby County · 14′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedBrian De Keersmaecker · Oxford United · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNik Prelec · Oxford United · 70′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedNik Prelec · Oxford United · 35′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedNik Prelec · Oxford United · 63′ · 0.07 xG · off target or blockedSiriki Dembélé · Oxford United · 17′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedCarlton Morris · Derby County · 90′ · 0.08 xG · off target or blockedMichał Helik · Oxford United · 45′ · 0.09 xG · on targetCameron Brannagan · Oxford United · 57′ · 0.09 xG · on targetWill Vaulks · Oxford United · 65′ · 0.10 xG · off target or blockedJack Currie · Oxford United · 18′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedBrian De Keersmaecker · Oxford United · 17′ · 0.14 xG · on targetNik Prelec · Oxford United · 49′ · 0.15 xG · on targetMichał Helik · Oxford United · 68′ · 0.20 xG · off target or blockedBrian De Keersmaecker · Oxford United · 18′ · 0.21 xG · on targetStanley Mills · Oxford United · 16′ · 0.25 xG · on targetStanley Mills · Oxford United · 25′ · 0.39 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Oxford United: 19 shots, 7 on target, 2.16 xG. Derby County: 6 shots, 1 on target, 0.21 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Stanley Mills · Oxford United · 25′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Oxford United 2.16 xG · Derby County 0.21 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Oxford United
2Draws
2Derby County
Derby County — Oxford United · Championship0–0
Oxford United — Derby County · Championship1–1
Oxford United — Derby County · League One2–3
Derby County — Oxford United · League One1–2
Oxford United — Derby County · League One2–3

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Oxford United favored in 8 of 11 directional metrics · Derby County in 2 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Oxford United10 matchesDerby County10 matches
1.1 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.1 goals/match
1.3 goals/match ▲Goals allowed10/101.6 goals/match
1.27 xG/match ▲Expected goals10/100.85 xG/match
14.3 shots/match ▲Shots10/108 shots/match
3.7 shots/match ▲Shots on target10/102.5 shots/match
43.2%Possession10/10● 43.5%
3.3 corners/matchCorners10/10● 4.2 corners/match
11.9 fouls/matchFouls9/912.8 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples10 / 10home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsOxford UnitedDerby County
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headOxford United — Derby County
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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