Championship · 2025Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 11:30 UTCFull timeLoftus Road StadiumFull-time recap

Queens Park Rangers

WWDDW

1–2Full-time recap

Millwall

DWDLW

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

Metric	Queens Park Rangers	Millwall
Shots	20 shots/match▲	5 shots/match
Shots on target	3 shots/match	5 shots/match▲
Expected goals	1.87 xG/match▲	1.64 xG/match
Possession	58%	42%
Corners	8 corners/match	3 corners/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

off target
on target
goal
penalty
size = xG

Queens Park Rangers: 20 shots, 3 on target, 1.90 xG. Millwall: 5 shots, 5 on target, 1.88 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Queens Park Rangers 1.90 xG · Millwall 1.88 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Queens Park Rangers's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. No second pattern clears the sample and coverage gates. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Queens Park Rangers's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Queens Park Rangers's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

1 goals/match▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1.4 goals/match

Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

Metric	Last 5	Season	Baseline
Goals for	1 goals/match	1.4 goals/match	1.1 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Queens Park Rangers favored in 4 of 14 directional metrics · Millwall in 4 · 6 too close

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scoredseason · 10/101.1 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 10/10▲1.22 xG/match

1.28 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 10/101.26 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShotsseason · 10/1012.8 shots/match

12.7 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 10/1012.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on targetseason · 10/103.3 shots/match

3.8 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 10/10▲3.3 shots/match

48.5%Possessionseason · 10/1046.7%

4.8 corners/matchCornersseason · 10/104.7 corners/match

4.8 corners/match▲Corners allowedseason · 10/105.5 corners/match

—Cardsseason · 0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 9/914.7 fouls/match

—Passesseason · 0/0—

—Pass accuracyseason · 0/0—

—Shots inside boxseason · 0/0—

—Blocked shotsseason · 0/0—

—Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0—

—Offsidesseason · 0/0—

20%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 10/10▲30%

90%▲Scoring frequencyseason · 10/1070%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Queens Park Rangers39.6

Millwall31.2

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Queens Park Rangers63.9

Millwall40.3

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Queens Park Rangers38.9

Millwall48.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Queens Park Rangers72.9

Millwall68.8

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Queens Park Rangers41.7

Millwall97.9

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 45%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Queens Park Rangers45.8

Millwall39.6

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 100%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Queens Park Rangers51.6

Millwall53.7

0–100 competition percentile · coverage 98%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches

1 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/match▲Goals allowed5/51.2 goals/match

1.33 xG/match▲Expected goals5/51.06 xG/match

13.8 shots/match▲Shots5/59.8 shots/match

3.6 shots/matchShots on target5/53.6 shots/match

48.4%Possession5/543.8%

5 corners/matchCorners5/54.2 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

11.8 fouls/matchFouls4/414.3 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.22 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots10/1012.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match

48.5%Possession10/1046.7%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/914.7 fouls/match

Window

Season

10 / 10 matches

1.4 goals/match▲Goals scored10/101.1 goals/match

1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed10/10▲1.3 goals/match

1.16 xG/matchExpected goals10/10▲1.22 xG/match

13.3 shots/matchShots10/1012.8 shots/match

3.7 shots/match▲Shots on target10/103.3 shots/match

48.5%Possession10/1046.7%

4.8 corners/matchCorners10/104.7 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls9/914.7 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

5 / 5 matches

1.2 goals/matchGoals scored5/5▲1.4 goals/match

0.8 goals/matchGoals allowed5/50.8 goals/match

1.27 xG/matchExpected goals5/5▲1.41 xG/match

14.6 shots/match▲Shots5/512.6 shots/match

4 shots/matchShots on target5/54.2 shots/match

50.6%Possession5/544.2%

5.2 corners/matchCorners5/54.6 corners/match

—Cards0/0—

10.8 fouls/matchFouls4/417.3 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

13.9 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/113.9 days

1 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/11 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready

Season samples10 / 10home / away teams

Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows

FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match

Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.

Analysis cutoff: Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 15:30 UTC · analysis-v4

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Match statistics

Shot map

Expected-goals timeline

What the record shows

Queens Park Rangers's recent record differs from the season

Values, percentiles and samples

How the teams compare

Possession control

Attacking volume

Defensive resistance

Directness proxy

Physicality

Set-piece relevance

Tempo and pressure proxy

Season, last 10 and last 5

Last 5

Last 10

Season

Home and away samples

Home team at home / away team away

Rest and recent workload

How much supports this analysis

Known unknowns

Related matches

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