PitchMath
Championship · 2025St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton 0–2 Preston North End · Championship

0–2Historical match

A completed match from a finished season. This page is the record of what happened.

Match at a glance

Preston North End won 0–2.

Shots
1012
Shots on target
23
Expected goals
0.532.24
Possession
64%36%

Full time

What the match recorded

Preston North End beat Southampton 2–0. Recorded in this match (Southampton – Preston North End): shots 10–12, shots on target 2–3, expected goals 0.53–2.24, possession 64%–36%. This is what was recorded. It is not a claim that the result was foreseeable.

Pre-match record

What the data showed before kick-off. Kept for reference; it did not know the result.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/match ▲Goals forLast 5 · Season1 goal/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goal/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.9% ●PossessionSouthampton · Preston North End45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonPreston North EndBaseline
Possession58.9%45.1%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Preston North End show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Preston North End's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/match ▲ShotsSouthampton · Preston North End11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonPreston North EndBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

This match

Match statistics

  • Shots10 shots12 shotsSouthampton 10 shots, Preston North End 12 shots
  • Shots on target2 shots3 shotsSouthampton 2 shots, Preston North End 3 shots
  • Expected goals0.53 xG2.24 xGSouthampton 0.53 xG, Preston North End 2.24 xG
  • Possession64%36%Southampton 64%, Preston North End 36%
  • Corners8 corners2 cornersSouthampton 8 corners, Preston North End 2 corners
  • Fouls11 fouls18 foulsSouthampton 11 fouls, Preston North End 18 fouls

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Arrows show each team’s attacking direction.

Alfie Devine · Preston North End · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Fellows · Southampton · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCaspar Jander · Southampton · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetStefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston North End · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJay Robinson · Southampton · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOdeluga Offiah · Preston North End · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Wood · Southampton · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDamion Downs · Southampton · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarrison Armstrong · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarrison Armstrong · Preston North End · 73′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 9′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 37′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 24′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′ · 0.40 xG · on targetLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′ · 0.50 xG · goalMads Frøkjær · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.59 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Southampton: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG. Preston North End: 12 shots, 3 on target, 2.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Lewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′Mads Frøkjær · Preston North End · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 0.53 xG · Preston North End 2.24 xG.

History

Head-to-head

Recent meetings between these teams.

Last 5 meetings

1Southampton
1Draws
0Preston North End
Southampton — Preston North End · Championship3–0
Preston North End — Southampton · Championship2–2

Head-to-Head & Recent Meetings

Metric comparison

Team comparison

Season averages, with the sample size beside each metric.

Where the edge is

Season: Southampton favored in 6 of 11 directional metrics · Preston North End in 4 · 1 too close

led this metric higher value (descriptive) too close

Window

Season

Southampton13 matchesPreston North End13 matches
1 goal/matchGoals scored13/13▲ 1.31 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/13▲ 0.92 goals/match
1.74 xG/match ▲Expected goals13/131.31 xG/match
14.4 shots/match ▲Shots12/1211.3 shots/match
4.58 shots/match ▲Shots on target12/123.25 shots/match
58.9% ●Possession12/1245.1%
5.92 corners/match ●Corners12/123.33 corners/match
12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/129.75 fouls/match

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceStrong evidence — limited
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • The fixture is outside the configured active season.
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
  • The fixture season differs from the competition's configured active season.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

Team rankings in Championship

Goals per match rankingxG per match rankingShots per match ranking
TeamsSouthamptonPreston North End
CompetitionChampionshipChampionship 2025/26
Head-to-headSouthampton — Preston North End
MethodHow PitchMath calculates this

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