Championship · 2025Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTCFull timeSt. Mary's StadiumFull-time recap
02Full-time recap

This page describes the completed match context. The result is not presented as a prior forecast.

This match

Match statistics

MetricSouthamptonPreston North End
Shots10 shots/match12 shots/match
Shots on target2 shots/match3 shots/match
Expected goals0.53 xG/match2.24 xG/match
Possession64%36%
Corners8 corners/match2 corners/match
Fouls11 fouls/match18 fouls/match

Every shot

Shot map

Every recorded shot, placed where it was taken and sized by its expected-goals value. Each team attacks towards its own end of the pitch.

Alfie Devine · Preston North End · 76′ · 0.01 xG · off target or blockedLiam Lindsay · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 90′ · 0.02 xG · off target or blockedLeo Scienza · Southampton · 26′ · 0.03 xG · on targetTom Fellows · Southampton · 67′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedCaspar Jander · Southampton · 70′ · 0.03 xG · on targetStefán Teitur Þórðarson · Preston North End · 81′ · 0.03 xG · off target or blockedJay Robinson · Southampton · 47′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedOdeluga Offiah · Preston North End · 57′ · 0.04 xG · off target or blockedNathan Wood · Southampton · 86′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedDamion Downs · Southampton · 90′ · 0.05 xG · off target or blockedHarrison Armstrong · Preston North End · 45′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 52′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedRyan Manning · Southampton · 69′ · 0.06 xG · off target or blockedHarrison Armstrong · Preston North End · 73′ · 0.11 xG · off target or blockedTaylor Harwood-Bellis · Southampton · 9′ · 0.16 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 37′ · 0.21 xG · off target or blockedAlfie Devine · Preston North End · 24′ · 0.25 xG · off target or blockedLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′ · 0.40 xG · on targetLewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′ · 0.50 xG · goalMads Frøkjær · Preston North End · 90′ · 0.59 xG · goal
  • off target
  • on target
  • goal
  • penalty
  • size = xG

Southampton: 10 shots, 2 on target, 0.53 xG. Preston North End: 12 shots, 3 on target, 2.24 xG.

How the match built

Expected-goals timeline

Expected goals accumulated minute by minute. Circles mark the goals that were actually scored.

01.252.50′HT90′Lewis Dobbin · Preston North End · 38′Mads Frøkjær · Preston North End · 90′

The step line is cumulative expected goals; circles mark goals. Final: Southampton 0.53 xG · Preston North End 2.24 xG.

30-second read

What the record shows

The clearest recorded pattern is: Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average. A second useful context is: Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share. Limitation: Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Southampton's recent record differs from the season

moderate

Southampton's last-five goals scored average is below their season average.

0.6 goals/matchGoals forLast 5 · Season1 goals/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: An unweighted last-five average is compared with the unweighted season average.

Window: last_5 versus season

MetricLast 5SeasonBaseline
Goals for0.6 goals/match1 goals/match1.19 goals/match

Caveat: Five matches are sensitive to opponent mix and isolated match states.

The teams have contrasting possession records

strong

Southampton have recorded the higher season possession share.

58.9%PossessionSouthampton · Preston North End45.1%
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: The recorded possession gap is 13.8 percentage points.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonPreston North EndBaseline
Possession58.9%45.1%49.8%

Caveat: Possession share does not show where possession occurred or how chances were created.

Preston North End show a distinct attacking-volume record

weak

Preston North End's shot volume and the opposing shot-allowance context sit below their competition baselines.

14.4 shots/matchShotsSouthampton · Preston North End11.3 shots/match
Evidence and caveat

Comparison: Team shot volume is paired with the opponent's recorded shot allowance.

Window: season

MetricSouthamptonPreston North EndBaseline
Shots14.4 shots/match11.3 shots/match12.4 shots/match
Shots against10.6 shots/match12.3 shots/match12.6 shots/match

Caveat: Shot volume describes activity; it does not establish finishing quality or a match outcome.

Metric comparison

Values, percentiles and samples

Where the edge is

Southampton favored in 6 of 14 directional metrics · Preston North End in 4 · 4 too close

1 goals/matchGoals scoredseason · 13/131.31 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowedseason · 13/130.92 goals/match
1.74 xG/matchExpected goalsseason · 13/131.31 xG/match
1.42 xG/matchExpected goals allowedseason · 13/131.26 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShotsseason · 12/1211.3 shots/match
10.6 shots/matchShots allowedseason · 12/1212.3 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on targetseason · 12/123.25 shots/match
2.92 shots/matchShots on target allowedseason · 12/123.08 shots/match
58.9%Possessionseason · 12/1245.1%
5.92 corners/matchCornersseason · 12/123.33 corners/match
3.42 corners/matchCorners allowedseason · 12/125.42 corners/match
Cardsseason · 0/0
12.1 fouls/matchFoulsseason · 11/129.75 fouls/match
Passesseason · 0/0
Pass accuracyseason · 0/0
Shots inside boxseason · 0/0
Blocked shotsseason · 0/0
Goalkeeper savesseason · 0/0
Offsidesseason · 0/0
15%Clean-sheet frequencyseason · 13/1338%
77%Scoring frequencyseason · 13/1377%

Style profile

How the teams compare

Competition percentiles describe recorded style; they do not rank likely outcomes.

Possession control

Relative share of recorded possession within the competition.

Southampton97.9
Preston North End22.9
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Attacking volume

Recorded shot and scoring volume, expressed as competition percentiles.

Southampton66
Preston North End36.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Defensive resistance

Lower recorded scoring and shot allowance produces a higher descriptive percentile.

Southampton65.3
Preston North End72.2
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 95%

Directness proxy

Shots per possession point; a descriptive transition/directness proxy, not an outcome score.

Southampton43.8
Preston North End52.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Physicality

Recorded fouls and cards relative to competition peers.

Southampton79.2
Preston North End12.5
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 42%

Set-piece relevance

Corner volume relative to competition peers.

Southampton87.5
Preston North End2.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 92%

Tempo and pressure proxy

Combined event-volume percentiles for shots, corners and fouls.

Southampton84.4
Preston North End13.1
0–100 competition percentile · coverage 90%

Recent form

Season, last 10 and last 5

Window

Last 5

5 / 5 matches
0.6 goals/matchGoals scored5/51.6 goals/match
1.6 goals/matchGoals allowed5/51 goals/match
1.71 xG/matchExpected goals5/51.68 xG/match
14 shots/matchShots4/414.8 shots/match
5.25 shots/matchShots on target4/43.5 shots/match
58.5%Possession4/447.8%
5.75 corners/matchCorners4/42.75 corners/match
Cards0/0
9 fouls/matchFouls3/49.5 fouls/match

Window

Last 10

10 / 10 matches
0.9 goals/matchGoals scored10/101.3 goals/match
1.5 goals/matchGoals allowed10/101 goals/match
1.51 xG/matchExpected goals10/101.29 xG/match
13 shots/matchShots9/912.1 shots/match
4.44 shots/matchShots on target9/93.44 shots/match
57.4%Possession9/947.9%
5.78 corners/matchCorners9/93 corners/match
Cards0/0
11.9 fouls/matchFouls8/99.22 fouls/match

Window

Season

13 / 13 matches
1 goals/matchGoals scored13/131.31 goals/match
1.46 goals/matchGoals allowed13/130.92 goals/match
1.74 xG/matchExpected goals13/131.31 xG/match
14.4 shots/matchShots12/1211.3 shots/match
4.58 shots/matchShots on target12/123.25 shots/match
58.9%Possession12/1245.1%
5.92 corners/matchCorners12/123.33 corners/match
Cards0/0
12.1 fouls/matchFouls11/129.75 fouls/match

Venue split

Home and away samples

Window

Home team at home / away team away

6 / 6 matches
0.67 goals/matchGoals scored6/61.17 goals/match
1 goals/matchGoals allowed6/61 goals/match
2.07 xG/matchExpected goals6/61.3 xG/match
16.5 shots/matchShots6/612.7 shots/match
4.17 shots/matchShots on target6/64 shots/match
62.8%Possession6/647.2%
6.67 corners/matchCorners6/63.5 corners/match
Cards0/0
11.2 fouls/matchFouls5/68.33 fouls/match

Schedule context

Rest and recent workload

7.04 daysRest before fixtureprevious completed fixtures · 1/17.83 days
2 matchesMatches in previous 14 daysprevious completed fixtures · 1/12 matches

Evidence quality

How much supports this analysis

Grade A · Strong evidenceready
Season samples13 / 13home / away teams
Recent samples5 / 5last-five windows
FreshnessLess than one dayfrom nearest prior match
  • Recent samples and important metric coverage meet the strong evidence threshold.

Known unknowns

  • Lineups, injuries, suspensions and tactical changes are not available in the retained dataset.
  • Some metrics are unavailable or below their observation minimum: cards.
Analysis cutoff: Sat, 1 Nov 2025, 19:00 UTC · analysis-v4

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